[其他] 我們能從過去的股市崩盤學到甚麼(翻譯文)已刪文

看板Stock (股票)作者wawi2 (@@)時間6年前 (2020/04/29 04:11)推噓5(5推 0噓 5→)

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翻譯Investor Junkie的文章，希望能有幫助。 Disclaimer: 翻譯跟理財是我個人興趣，我個人不從事金融保險業。原文網址: https://tinyurl.com/yb2tgktz What Can Past Stock Market Crashes Teach Us? 我們能從過去的股市崩盤學到甚麼? This isn't the first time the stock market has crashed and it won't be the last. Here is a brief history of past market crashes and what we can learn about the COVID-19 market crash. 這不是股市第一次崩盤，也不會是最後一次。以下是過去股市崩潰的簡述以及我們可以從 COVID-19導致的市場崩盤學到甚麼。 The United States is currently in the throes of financial turmoil due to COVID-19, with the stock market crashing in early March. The coronavirus has affected everything from the job market to the stock market, and there is no clear end in sight. But this isn't the first time the stock market has seen dark days. 美國正在COVID-19帶來的財政混亂中掙扎，股市在3月初已經開始大跌。冠狀病毒已經從就業市場到股票市場影響了所有事物，而目前仍不清楚甚麼時候才能結束。但是這並不是股市第一次迎接黑暗的日子。 The stock market has faced challenges many times throughout the decades, including the Great Depression. Understanding the history of market crashes can help investors remain steady during this current tumult and is a good reminder that we will all get through this. 過去幾十年間，股市遭遇過很多次挑戰，其中包含經濟大蕭條。了解市場崩跌的歷史可以幫助投資者在當前的[市場]波動保持鎮定，同時也提醒我們最終將能克服一切。 Timeline of Three Past Market Crashes 過去三次股市崩盤的時程 September 1929 — After years of stock price increases in the United States, stocks began falling. A month later, on Black Monday (October 28) and Black Tuesday (October 29), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, aka “the Dow” ) fell more than 25%, starting the Great Depression and years of steep unemployment in the United States. 1929年9月：美國股市維持好幾年的高檔後，股市開始下跌。一月之後的黑色星期一(10月 28日)和黑色星期二(10月29日)，道瓊工業平均指數下跌超過百分之二十五，開啟了經濟大蕭條以及接下來好幾年美國低迷的就業率。 October 2008 — Over a week, the DJIA fell 17% due to a crisis in subprime mortgage lending. And the S&P fell by nearly 19%. After 17 months, the U.S. stock markets lost over 50% of their value. This led to banks closing and started the Great Recession. 2008年10月：一周之間，道瓊因為次貸危機而下跌百分之十七，標普則下跌約百分之十九。十七個月後，美股蒸發的市值超過百分之五十，這場危機使得許多銀行關門，也帶來大蕭條。 March 2020 — The DJIA lost 4,786 points throughout March due to the spread of the coronavirus. And it registered its worst quarter since 1987. 2020年3月：由於冠狀病毒的疫情，三月時道瓊整整下跌4,786點。這是道瓊從1987年以來最糟糕的一季 What Happened After the Drops? 大跌之後發生了甚麼 Black Monday and Tuesday in 1929 kicked off the most severe stock market crisis in the United States to date. The Dow lost 89% of its pre-crisis peak value over roughly 34 months. 1929年的黑色星期一及星期二開啟了美國當時史上最嚴重的股市危機，在之後的34個月道瓊市值一共損失了百分之八十九。 The Great Recession of 2008–2009 ushered in a market decline of 53% from highs over 17 months. Recent market movements caused by the coronavirus caused the Dow to lose 28% between February 11 and March 12. Since the virus is still without a vaccine, there is a possibility of more market disruption to come. 2008到2009年間的大蕭條讓股市在17個月之間，市值蒸發百分之五十三。最近由冠狀病毒引起的的股票動向使道瓊在2月11日至3月12日之間損失了百分之二十八。因為此病毒目前仍沒有疫苗，因此將來很有可能會有更多市場崩潰的到來 How Are Market Crashes Related to Recessions? 市場崩盤與經濟衰退有甚麼關聯? A market crash does not necessarily start a recession. The U.S economy is made up of much more than just the stock market. The economy comprises other things as well, including employment and unemployment rates, gross domestic product (GDP), and the rate of national consumption (how much we're all spending money). 市場崩盤不一定帶來經濟衰退，美國經濟不是只由股票市場所構成，經濟包含了其他多種面向，比如就業率、失業率、國內生產毛額以及人民消費指數(我們總共花多少錢)。 By definition, a recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. For some context, the U.S. GDP shrank by about 27% during the Great Depression. Throughout the Great Recession, GDP shrank by only about 5%. 根據定義，經濟衰退指的是國內生產毛額連兩季下跌。簡單地說，在經濟大蕭條時期，美國國內生產毛額縮水百分之二十七，整個大蕭條時期國內生產毛額則只有下降百分之五。 A period of stock market drops doesn't equate to a recession. However, a prolonged declining market over the course of a few weeks can be an indicator that other parts of the economy are not doing well. 一段時間的股市大跌並不意味著經濟衰退，但是若股市在幾周內持續下探，可能意味著其他經濟表現並不好。 Coronavirus Effect on the Economy 冠狀病毒對經濟的影響 Today, due to the coronavirus, many people cannot go outside their homes to shop and spend money. This means less consumer spending, and that businesses are less profitable. Some companies have even been forced to close due to state-issued lockdowns of nonessential businesses. 現在由於冠狀病毒疫情，許多人無法外出去消費花錢，這代表消費變少，商業盈利也隨之減少。一些公司由於州政府的非必要商業封鎖命令而被迫關閉。 With businesses closing and making less money, they have less money to pay employees. That has resulted in many layoffs and people being furloughed from their jobs. This, in turn, means people have less income and are thus spending even less. It's a vicious cycle. 隨著商業關閉及營利下降，他們就更沒有錢可以發出薪水給員工，結果就是許多人被解雇或者放無薪假，然後許多人因收入減少而又減少消費，最後陷入惡性循環。 Now, this may seem far removed from the stock market, but it's actually closely tied in. When people spend less, companies that are publicly traded may post less in revenue. This affects their performance and profit levels. 現在這些從股市看來，一切似乎還無關緊要，但實際上是緊緊相依的。當人們不常消費，公開上市交易公司的歲入就會減少，這會影響到公司的表現及盈利。 Additionally, when people see that the market is down, it can spark a ripple of fear. Investors can lose confidence in the market, which could lead them to take their money out completely, switching from stocks to bonds, or even cause them to pause their investments. 此外，當人們看到市場跌落，一波波的恐懼便會襲來。投資者對市場會失去信心而將錢從股票中抽走轉進債券，甚至都不投資。 How Did The Stock Market Recover After Crashing? 過去股市崩盤後是如何復甦的? 1929: The Great Depression was felt worldwide. At the time, there were not a lot of the safeguards that we currently have in both the investing and banking worlds. So the effect lingered. It took 25 years for the stock market to reach the highs it saw before the Depression began. 1929年: 經濟大蕭條傳至全世界，那時候投資及銀行界還沒有非常多的保護措施。所以大蕭條帶來的影響是很久的，股市一共花了25年才會到大蕭條之前的高點。 2008: After 2008, the stock market took less than four years to recover fully. 2008年: 在2008年之後，股市在四年內完全恢復。 Today: Right now, the Federal Reserve has taken drastic action to prevent further market drops. So far. The U.S. government has released three fiscal stimulus bills that come with a variety of ways to help businesses and individuals through this pandemic. 今日: 就是現在，聯邦儲備銀行已採取了極端的行動來防止更多的市場崩潰。目前為止，美國政府已經釋出三波財政刺激法案，用了許多方法來幫助商業和個人度過此流行病時期。 It's impossible to say when the stock market will reach pre–COVID-19 levels. But Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says that he is ready and willing to take unprecedented actions to stabilize the economy and the stock market. 要知道股市何時能回復到COVID-19爆發之前的水準是不可能的，但是聯邦儲備委員會主席傑洛姆鮑爾說他已經準備好了，也願意採取空前的行動讓經濟與股市維持平穩。 What Investors Can Do During This Crash 在此次崩盤中，投資者可以做甚麼? Each investor is different and has different goals, but there are some best practices for market crashes. 每個投資這都是不一樣的，也有不同的目標，但市場崩盤時，還是有一些最好的準則的。 If you do not need to live off of your investments right now, try to keep your money in the stock market. Pulling money out will only negatively affect the market and could lock in a loss for you as the investor. 如果你不需要依靠你的投資來維持生計，那就盡量讓錢保持在股市中。這個時候從中抽取金錢只會讓市場更糟，而且做為投資者的你也會鎖住你的損失。 If you want to invest during a market drop, and are looking for individual companies, take a look at the stock market sectors that have been hit hardest by the virus. You might find great deals right now. Use self-directed stock brokers such as TD Ameritrade or Merrill Edge to buy stocks you see potential in. 如果你想要在市場下跌時投資，同時也在尋找標的，可以看一下股市中哪個領域被疫情影響得最多。現在你或許已經找到了不錯的交易了，那就用標榜自主投資的券商來買你覺得有潛力的股票吧。 For example, cruise ships have had a difficult time, and their values have decreased. That means you can grab some stock at a lower price and hold on to it. Other industries to consider buying right now include airlines, hotels, and travel agencies. 舉例來說，郵輪業正遭逢困難，他們的價值也縮水了。這代表你可以用比較低的價格取得這些股票並且持有。其他可以考慮買進的行業還有航空業、旅館業以及旅行社。 A good reminder for every investor is that there have been severe market drops and serious recessions before. What is happening right now isn't unprecedented. The U.S. survived the Great Depression and the Great Recession and the stock market remained intact each time. Remind yourself of that as you watch market fluctuations. It will help you weather the storm. 最後溫馨提醒每一個投資者，過去也有不少市場大跌和嚴重的[經濟]衰退，現在所發生的並非空前未有。美國從經濟大蕭條活過來了，且大蕭條和股市最後也是毫髮無傷。記得時時注意市場的波動，它可以幫助你度過這場風暴喔！啾咪(￣ε(#￣) # -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 98.221.196.175 (美國) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1588104691.A.723.html ※ 編輯: wawi2 (98.221.196.175 美國), 04/29/2020 04:20:47