Re: [心得] 今年報考博班人數應該會大增吧！

看板PhD (博士班)作者LoIn (LoIn)時間17年前 (2008/12/10 12:48)推噓1(1推 0噓 4→)

留言5則, 3人參與討論串2/2 (看更多)

※ 引述《hhhuang1013 (人生是由許多的起伏組成)》之銘言： : 去年畢業剛當完兵的學弟有不少人還沒找到工作， : 今年碩二也有一些原本不想再唸的，最近也聽說 : 都在問入學考的事情，而最近又很不景氣，不知何 : 時會回轉，我猜應該會有不少人抱著投資自已的想法 : 會唸下去。 More new entrants due to severe unemployment? I'm afraid not. Unless this wave of cool air (recession) is expected to last for a loooong time, say, 10 years or more, a rational decision-maker shouldn't take phd program, characterized by its long time lag from seeding to harvest, into consideration, if she studies phd just for a refuge, without academic passion. In phd program, one may sacrifice her price- less "golden age" of her life, in which she should have made money or enjoyed "compelled" leisure, that is so-called opportunity cost. For one who plans to only invest herself in the hard period and to leave for private enterprises after years for making a good fortune during the booming business, it is unwise to enter phd program when doctoral degree isn't a necessity of her "fortune-making." It is a "consumption," rather than "investment", that phd phase can bring. Just as the fundamental operations of arithmetic (+ - * /) may be a needed equipment to a successful businessman or top sales, but, for example, chaos may probably not in general cases, despite an import- ant part of Mathematics. Certainly, if the situation is so bad enough to seek a "iron bowl" whoever, such loooong recession is very likely to shift the demand curve of public service rightwards, which happens in labor market of government serviant and academic researcher both. In the long run, such dynamics results in Q* increase and P* decrease (or more excess supply if the price, say, salary, is stubborn); it also leads to what you mentioned, some dislikes academia but enter phd program under aggregate pressure. I still, however, wonder about how much the effect can work or how long the phenomenon can last in Taiwan. First, not all potential entrants are willing to suffer the pain in the program. Second, on the basis of people's time preference assumption (people like present more than future), one who plans to access public system, she can accept kinds of examination to obtain an iron-bowl occupation, e.g. state- owned enterprises, which can be achieved within one year if study hard and pay her a salary similar to a assistant professor, at least in following years. It sounds profitable to those who is sick of research job, isn't it? The last, as broadly worried by doctoral students, it may appear a great deal of "vagrant professors" or "vagrant phds" in Taiwan, perhaps in 3 or 5 years. If so, it really has to invest them- selves for many master graduates if they treat research with in differ- ence. I suggest they had better invest in Global Village, Yung-Han Japanese, or other foreign language cram school else, rather invest in phd program, if they aren't gonna sink into "structual unemployment" from "cyclic unemployment." : 有時有點感嘆，這十年內政府培養了太多理工的人力 : 也造成了職場上許多不正常的現象，何時才能回到常態呢？ Cheer up! Life will find its own way, so will the advanced educat- ion. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.119.206.2 ※ 編輯: LoIn 來自: 140.119.206.2 (12/10 12:50)