Re: [新聞] 絕大多數經濟學家預期美聯儲將於9月加息已刪文
1. 葉倫和FED一直的立場都很明確,隨便節錄一小段文章
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told the Senate banking committee
Thursday that the risks of raising interest rates too soon outweigh the
hazards of acting too late.
If an early rate hike derails the recovery, "With the (Fed's benchmark)
rate pinned near zero, we don't have great scope to respond," she said
in her semiannual monetary policy report to Congress.
By contrast, she said, if the Fed waits longer to raise rates, stoking
inflation, it can increase its key rate more rapidly to catch up
過早升息的風險>>>>>>過晚升息的風險
過早升息:升息如果把正在復甦但仍脆弱的經濟成長打下去,美國沒有太大的貨幣政策空間
可以操作(升一次也才0.5%是能幹嘛,再QE一次?)
過晚升息:FED更有信心去對抗通膨,而且利率向上的空間很大
2.經濟學家調查?
經濟學家永遠不會有意見相同的時候,如果他們在某個時候意見相同
通常那都是錯的,直接看市場更直接也更量化
http://goo.gl/y1Vres
Target Rate(%) 目前(%) 昨日(%) 上月(%)
0.25 55% 61.4 74.3
0.50 45% 38.6 25.7
市場上從來沒有覺得今年九月升息的機率有超過一半,
即使數字逐漸上升,目前也只有45%的機率
這數字怎麼算的,網站裡有詳細計算方法
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