[心得] 後市分析已刪文
行情跌破8500後,對於後市看法已然相對保守小心,之前提過本波回檔為尖頭反轉,
且恰好在馬習會前後發動,一口氣下跌500多點且毫無支撐的摜破8500,
更讓整個盤面充滿重大變數.
自從8630跌破後,短線即已確定轉弱,今日跌破8500更是十分要命,
目前惟一的下方支撐是季線8350,能守住行情尚有一線生機,反之要是不能守住的話,
則隨時提防新一波程式停損賣壓出籠,屆時會再殺到那裡去就不敢去想了,
另一個隱憂在於近期大盤重挫時,融資卻是一路不減反增,外資賣壓亦是毫不手軟,
籌碼面十分惡劣之下8350究竟能不能守住真的很有疑問,極短線或許跌深還會短彈,
但如果短彈是給外資追加期權空單用的話,那麼就不必太過期待了.
另一個技術面的劣勢因子則是週KD高檔下彎,反彈波中最忌看到的便是這樣的情況,
由於本週週K線長黑幾成定局,下週在KD開口擴大之下恐怕往下力道還會更大,
還有就是隱含波動率,現在已經逼近25%,已經來到2個月來最高點,
在反彈高處出現突然拉高的波動率代表的就是行情的恐慌情況已然大為升高,
就歷史經驗而言隨時有再重挫一波的可能,除非外資能突然在現期貨大力做多,
否則對於季線的防守就不容太過樂觀了,一旦不幸點演變成C波下跌的話,
低點會落在那裡,恐怕想也不敢想.
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