[新聞] 法人觀點:瑞銀上修中國今年GDP和出口預測,估人行年底前不再下調MLF利率
看板Stock (股票)作者googolplex (googolplex)時間1周前 (2024/04/17 17:17)推噓69(77推 8噓 147→)留言232則, 49人參與討論串1/2 (看更多)
法人觀點:瑞銀上修中國今年GDP和出口預測,估人行年底前不再下調MLF利率
劉敏夫 2024/04/17 09:41
https://reurl.cc/main/tw
外電報導指出,瑞士金融商瑞銀集團(UBS)上調中國今年經濟和出口增幅預期,且不再預
計央行年底前會下調中期信貸便利(MLF)利率。
包括汪濤在內的瑞銀經濟專家週二在一份報告中表示,瑞銀將中國2024年經濟成長預期從
之前的4.6%上調至4.9%,原因是第一季經濟表現優於預期,且出口前景光明。瑞銀目前預
計,中國2024年出口成長3.5%,高於此前預期的1.2%。
此外,由於通膨預期下降,瑞銀將2024年名義GDP增速預測從5.1%下調至4.9%。同時,由
於房地產市場持續低迷且消費者信心不振,將今年的消費成長預測從之前的5.5%下調至
5.1%。
瑞銀這份報告還將2024年底美元兌人民幣匯率預期從7調整至7.1-7.2,認為人民幣短期內
有進一步貶值的風險。
同時,鑒於聯準會降息預期的變化,瑞銀不再預計中國人民銀行今年會下調MLF政策利率
。瑞銀經濟專家們表示,可能只有數據惡化,才會觸發更多的政策支持。
瑞銀上修中國今年GDP 4.9%
距中國設定GDP 5.0%非常接近
還上修出口預測 前景似乎光明
只能今年中國gdp保5% 看來不是夢想
有投資中港股市的網友要興趣可以參考
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