[新聞] Fed's Powell says 'time has come'
原文標題：
Fed's Powell says 'time has come' to begin cutting interest rates
原文連結：
https://reurl.cc/1bex29
發布時間：
2024/08/23 10:00pm
記者署名：
Myles Udland and Jennifer Schonberger
原文內容：
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sent a straightforward message to markets
in a key speech on Friday, saying "the time has come" for the central bank to
begin lowering interest rates.
Speaking at the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole,
Powell said: "The time has come for policy to adjust."
"The direction of travel is clear," Powell added, "and the timing and pace of
rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance
of risks."
Powell's speech comes just over three weeks out from the Fed's Sept. 17-18
meeting, which should see the central bank announce its first interest rate
cut since 2020.
Powell acknowledged recent softness in the labor market in his speech and
said the Fed does not "seek or welcome further cooling in labor market
conditions."
The July jobs report rattled markets earlier this month, revealing there were
just 114,000 jobs added to the economy last month while the unemployment rate
rose to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021. Data earlier this week also
showed that 818,000 fewer people were employed in the US economy as of March,
suggesting reports have been overstating the strength of the job market over
the last year.
"It seems unlikely that the labor market will be a source of elevated
inflationary pressures anytime soon," Powell said.
Ahead of Powell's speech, investors had priced in nearly 100% odds the Fed
would lower rates next month, with odds on a cut of 0.25% vs. 0.50% standing
at roughly two to one.
"Four and a half years after COVID-19’s arrival, the worst of the
pandemic-related economic distortions are fading," Powell said.
"Inflation has declined significantly...Our objective has been to restore
price stability while maintaining a strong labor market, avoiding the sharp
increases in unemployment that characterized earlier disinflationary episodes
when inflation expectations were less well anchored. While the task is not
complete, we have made a good deal of progress toward that outcome."
Powell's remarks on Friday were reminiscent of those he delivered at Jackson
Hole in 2022, in which the Fed chair offered a direct assessment of the
economic outlook and, at the time, the need for additional rate increases.
FILE PHOTO: Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve walks in Teton
National Park where financial leaders from around the world gathered for the
Jackson Hole Economic Symposium outside Jackson, Wyoming, U.S., August 26,
2022. REUTERS/Jim Urquhart
Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve walks in Teton National Park
where financial leaders from around the world gathered for the Jackson Hole
Economic Symposium outside Jackson, Wyoming, U.S., August 26, 2022.
REUTERS/Jim Urquhart (Reuters / Reuters)
"At this podium two years ago, I discussed the possibility that addressing
inflation could bring some pain in the form of higher unemployment and slower
growth," Powell said.
"Some argued that getting inflation under control would require a recession
and a lengthy period of high unemployment. I expressed our unconditional
commitment to fully restoring price stability and to keeping at it until the
job is done."
Friday's speech more or less suggests that job is indeed done.
"All told, the healing from pandemic distortions, our efforts to moderate
aggregate demand, and the anchoring of expectations have worked together to
put inflation on what increasingly appears to be a sustainable path to our 2
percent objective," Powell said.
美國聯邦儲備主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）在週五的一次重要講話中向市場傳
遞了明確的信息，表示「時機已經成熟」，聯邦儲備將開始降低利率。
在堪薩斯城聯邦儲備銀行於傑克遜霍爾舉行的年度經濟研討會上，鮑威爾說：「政策調整
的時機已經到來。」
鮑威爾補充說：「前進的方向很明確，利率削減的時間和速度將取決於未來的數據、經濟
前景的演變以及風險的平衡。」
鮑威爾的講話距離聯邦儲備委員會9月17-18日的會議僅有三週多的時間，屆時聯邦儲備可
能宣布自2020年以來的首次降息。
鮑威爾在講話中承認近期勞動力市場疲軟，並表示聯邦儲備「不尋求或歡迎勞動力市場條
件的進一步降溫。」
本月早些時候發布的7月就業報告震撼了市場，報告顯示上個月僅增加了114,000個就業機
會，失業率上升至4.3%，為2021年10月以來的最高水平。本週早些時候的數據還顯示，截
至3月，美國經濟中的就業人數減少了818,000人，這表明報告在過去一年中可能高估了就
業市場的強勁程度。
鮑威爾說：「勞動力市場不太可能成為通脹壓力的主要來源。」
在鮑威爾的講話之前，投資者幾乎已經確信聯邦儲備下月將降息，市場預計降息0.25%的
概率大約是降息0.50%的兩倍。
鮑威爾說：「新冠疫情到來四年半後，與疫情相關的經濟扭曲正在消退。」
「通脹顯著下降……我們的目標是恢復物價穩定，同時保持強勁的勞動力市場，避免像以
往通脹預期不穩定時出現的失業率大幅上升的情況。儘管任務尚未完成，但我們在實現這
一目標方面已經取得了相當大的進展。」
鮑威爾週五的講話讓人聯想到他在2022年傑克遜霍爾的發言，當時這位聯邦儲備主席對經
濟前景進行了直接評估，並強調了需要進一步加息的必要性。
「兩年前在這個講台上，我討論了應對通脹可能帶來的一些痛苦，包括失業率上升和經濟
增長放緩。」鮑威爾說。
「有些人認為，控制通脹需要經濟衰退和長期的高失業率。我們表達了對完全恢復物價穩
定的無條件承諾，並堅持不懈直到完成這項任務。」
週五的講話基本上表明，這項任務確實已經完成。
「總而言之，疫情扭曲的癒合、我們控制總需求的努力以及預期的穩定，已共同促使通脹
逐漸朝著我們2%的目標邁進。」鮑威爾說。
心得/評論：
結論，你各位等的降息時刻來啦，多蛙債挖空挖
準備好了嗎，禮拜一 一根
--
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