[新聞] 儘管川普推行促進成長議程，「滯脹」擔憂仍困擾美國市場

看板Stock (股票)作者cosmite (焼き団子)時間1天前 (2025/02/20 15:48)推噓12(13推 1噓 10→)

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儘管川普推行促進成長議程，「滯脹」擔憂仍困擾美國市場 https://is.gd/60xPA0 路透作者：Suzanne McGee和Davide Barbuscia 2025 年 2 月 20 日下午 2:21 概要： 1.川普關稅加劇通膨和低成長擔憂 2.調查顯示基金經理人的滯脹預期上升 3.有些人仍樂觀地認為關稅對經濟成長的衝擊將是暫時的 4.分析家警告不要對川普的政策感到自滿 2 月 20 日（路透社）——頑固的通貨膨脹和唐納德·特朗普總統的強硬貿易政策重新引發了人們對滯脹的擔憂。過去50年來，滯脹捲土重來的可能性不斷出現，這將對一系列資產帶來壓力，但並未對投資者的投資組合構成真正的威脅。儘管經濟學家和投資組合經理還不願意說這次的情況有所不同，但隨著貿易戰和懲罰性關稅的前景給美國經濟成長蒙上陰影，這種可怕的情形在最近幾週再次成為投資者面臨的主要風險。布蘭迪萬全球固定收益策略投資組合經理傑克麥金太爾表示：“滯脹肯定已經重新出現，因為我們的這些政策可能會損害消費需求，而持續的通膨限制了美聯儲的操控能力。” “從長遠來看，這不再是一個零可能性的情況了。” 本月早些時候，滯脹難題的關鍵部分——通貨膨脹拒絕降溫——更加牢固地存在，當時政府數據顯示，1 月份消費者價格以 2023 年 8 月以來的最快月度速度上漲，使年通膨率達到 3%。另一個難題是美國經濟成長仍懸而未決，而川普的關稅可能會增加通膨壓力，從而打破平衡。 Innovator Capital Management 首席投資策略師 Tim Urbanowicz 表示：“比起通膨風險，我們更擔心的是滯脹。” “我們需要應對通膨的頑固基礎，除此之外，關稅還有可能成為消費者稅，拖累利潤和經濟成長，從而減緩經濟成長。” 美國銀行週二對全球基金經理人進行的一項調查顯示，預計未來一年將出現滯脹（該銀行將其定義為增長低於趨勢但通膨高於趨勢）的投資者比例達到七個月來的最高水平。同時，調查顯示，投資人仍看好股市，貿易戰被視為低機率風險。川普雖然在2月初將對加拿大和墨西哥進口產品徵收新關稅的計畫推遲了一個月，但他已對所有中國進口產品徵收10%的新關稅，並宣布對全球鋼鐵和鋁進口徵收關稅。他還責成其經濟團隊制定對所有向美國進口產品徵稅的國家徵收互惠關稅的計劃，並於本週表示計劃對汽車、半導體和藥品進口徵收 25% 的關稅。一些投資者認為，關稅對經濟成長造成的衝擊將是暫時的。資本集團資產類別服務主管 Maddi Dessner 表示，從長期來看，關稅甚至可能促進成長，推動那些受益於全球競爭減少的產業發展。另一方面，它們的最初影響可能會增加價格壓力。她表示：「事實是，它可能介於這兩者之間。」她還補充稱，關稅是 Capital Group 現在預測 10 年期美國國債收益率在 20 年內將達到 3.9% 的原因之一，高於去年預測的 3.7% 。原文： 'Stagflation' fears haunt US markets despite Trump's pro-growth agenda Summary： Trump's tariffs fuel low growth fears on top of inflation Fund managers' stagflation expectations rise, survey shows Some remain optimistic tariff hit on growth would be temporary Analysts warn about complacency towards Trump policies Feb 20 (Reuters) - Stubborn inflation and President Donald Trump's hard-line tra de policies have rekindled fears of stagflation, a worrying mix of sluggish grow th and relentless inflation that haunted the U.S. in the 1970s, even as markets remain upbeat on his pro-growth agenda. The potential return of stagflation, which would pressure a range of assets, has been flagged periodically over the past 50 years but not materialized as a real threat to investor portfolios. While economists and portfolio managers are not ready to say that this time is different, the dreaded scenario has crept back as a key risk for investors in recent weeks, as the prospect of trade wars and pun itive tariffs cast a shadow over U.S. growth. "Stagflation has definitely re-emerged as a possibility because we have these po licies that could hurt consumer demand even while persistent inflation limits th e Federal Reserve's ability to maneuver," said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager for Brandywine Global's fixed income strategies. "It's not a zero-possibility sc enario any more, by a long shot." A key piece of the stagflation puzzle - inflation that refuses to cool down - lo dged more firmly into place earlier this month, when government data showed cons umer prices rose in January at their fastest monthly pace since August 2023, bri nging the annual rate of inflation to 3%. The other piece of the puzzle, U.S. economic growth, hangs in the balance, with Trump's tariffs threatening to add inflationary pressure that could tip the scal e. "What continues to concern us more than the risk of inflation is stagflation," s aid Tim Urbanowicz, chief investment strategist at Innovator Capital Management. "There is that sticky base of inflation to contend with but on top of that, tar iffs have the potential to slow down the economy by becoming a tax on consumers and weighing on profits and economic growth." A Bank of America survey of global fund managers on Tuesday showed the proportio n of investors expecting stagflation - defined by the bank as below-trend growth and above-trend inflation - over the next year stood at a seven-month high. At the same time, investors remained bullish on stocks, with a trade war seen as a low-probability risk, the survey showed. While Trump postponed imposing new tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico for a month at the beginning of February, he has rolled out a new 10% levy on all C hinese imports and announced tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports. He has also tasked his economics team with devising plans for reciprocal tariffs on every country that taxes U.S. imports, and this week said he plans to introd uce 25% tariffs on autos, semiconductors and pharmaceutical imports. Some investors believe any hit to growth from tariffs would be temporary. Over a longer-term horizon, tariffs could even promote growth, said Maddi Dessne r, head of asset class services at Capital Group, boosting industries that will benefit from less competition globally. On the other hand, their initial impact could increase price pressures. "The truth is it's probably going to be somewhere in between those two things," she said, adding tariffs were partly why Capital Group now forecasts 10-year Tre asury yields at 3.9% over a 20-year horizon, up from a 3.7% forecast last year. 心得評論： 1 月份消費者價格以 2023 年 8 月以來的最快月度速度上漲，使年通膨率達到 3%。 2.美國銀行週二對全球基金經理人進行的一項調查顯示，預計未來一年將出現滯脹的投資者比例達到七個月來的最高水平。 3.投資人仍看好股市，貿易戰被視為低機率風險。 4.Capital Group 預測 10 年期美國國債收益率在 20 年內將達到 3.9% （高於去年預測的 3.7%）。結論：投資人仍看好股市，還有上漲可能，唯需注意貿易戰帶來的滯脹風險。聯準會主席鮑爾在2026年5月15日才下台，聯準會不聽川普的，川普還有多少工具可用？ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 42.70.66.106 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1740037698.A.ECF.html

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duriamon

02/20 15:49, 1天前 , 1^F

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※ 編輯: cosmite (42.70.66.106 臺灣), 02/20/2025 15:50:50

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