[新聞] 黃金突破4000鎂/盎司所代表的美國經濟

看板Stock (股票)作者TyuzuChou (潤潤潤)時間2小時前 (2025/10/09 10:12)推噓21(21推 0噓 9→)

留言30則, 26人參與討論串1/1

原文標題： Here's what gold crossing $4,000 is telling us about the U.S. economy 原文連結： https://www.aol.com/articles/heres-gold-crossing-4-000-191226453.html 發布時間：Thu, October 9, 2025 at 3:12 AM GMT+8 記者署名：Aimee Picchi 原文內容： Gold is glittering for investors, with prices now topping a record $4,000 an ounce. But the reasons behind the shiny metal's surge may be less than dazzling, with Wall Street analysts saying it reflects growing unease over the U.S. economy and political stability. 黃金對投資者來說閃閃發光，價格現已創下每盎司 4,000 美元的紀錄。但華爾街分析師表示，這種閃亮金屬飆升背後的原因可能並不那麼耀眼，它反映了人們對美國經濟和政治穩定日益增長的不安。 The price of gold has leaped 53% this year alone, far outpacing the 15% gain in the S&P 500 stock index over the same period. The price of an ounce of gold edged higher on Wednesday, touching $4,078, according to financial data company FactSet, with some analysts predicting it to go higher. 僅今年，黃金價格就飆升了 53%，遠超標準普爾 500 股票指數同期 15% 的漲幅。根據金融數據公司 FactSet 的數據，週三黃金價格小幅走高，觸及 4,078 美元一盎司，一些分析師預測還會更高。 Investors have long turned to gold during periods of economic turmoil and high inflation, viewing it as both a safe haven when markets turn volatile and a hedge against rising prices. 在經濟動盪和高通脹時期，投資者長期以來一直轉向黃金，將其視為市場波動時的避風港和對抗價格上漲的對沖工具。 Of late, however, stock prices have steamed to record highs this year, economic growth has accelerated in recent months and inflation this year has remained relatively subdued, prompting questions about what's fueling investors' renewed appetite for gold. 然而，近來股市今年飆升至創紀錄高點，經濟增長近幾個月有所加速，且今年通脹仍相對溫和，這引發了關於是什麼重新點燃了投資者對黃金興趣的疑問。 "$4,000 an ounce seemed far-fetched at the start of the year as gold entered 2025 near $2,800 an ounce. But after a ~50% rally, here we are," eToro U.S. investment analyst Bret Kenwell said in an email. eToro 美國投資分析師 Bret Kenwell 在一封電子郵件中表示：「年初時，黃金以每盎司近 2,800 美元的價格進入 2025 年，4,000 美元一盎司似乎遙不可及。但在經歷了約 50 % 的漲幅之後，我們現在達到了。」 The reasons for the surge boil down to several economic and political factors, according to Kenwell and other investment analysts. 根據 Kenwell 和其他投資分析師的說法，黃金飆升的原因歸結為幾個經濟和政治因素。 Economic uncertainty 經濟不確定性 Gold is often a refuge for investors when they're worried about the economy, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown is only fueling their anxieties, according to Nigel Green, CEO of investment firm deVere Group. 投資公司 deVere Group 首席執行官 Nigel Green 表示，當投資者擔心經濟時，黃金通常是他們的避難所，而持續的美國政府停擺只會加劇他們的焦慮。 "The situation in Washington has reminded investors that political promises do not equate to financial security. Gold represents protection from that uncertainty, but its price now also reflects how much faith has drained from other assets. That level of dependence always carries risk," Green said in an email. Green 在一封電子郵件中說：「華盛頓的局勢提醒了投資者，政治承諾並不等同於金融安全。黃金代表了對這種不確定性的保護，但其價格現在也反映了其他資產流失了多少信心。這種依賴程度總是帶有風險。」 Although the economy continues to expand, investors are also expressing concern about potential headwinds to growth, including the impact of U.S. tariffs and a weakening job market, according to economists. 經濟學家表示，儘管經濟持續擴張，但投資者也對潛在的增長阻力表示擔憂，包括美國關稅的影響和就業市場的疲軟。 Federal agencies currently aren't releasing economic data due to the government shutdown, now in its second week. That makes it more difficult to get a handle on the state of the economy, said Kevin Ford, FX and macro strategist at Convera. Convera 的外匯和宏觀策略師 Kevin Ford 表示，由於政府停擺已進入第二週，聯邦機構目前沒有發布經濟數據。這使得人們更難掌握經濟狀況。 "[T]he US economy remains a challenge to read due to the ongoing government shutdown, which has severely diminished visibility," Ford noted. "However, the shutdown is a material headwind: S&P Global Ratings estimates it could trim GDP growth by 0.10.2 percentage point for every week the government remains closed." Ford 指出：「由於持續的政府停擺，美國經濟仍然難以解讀，這嚴重降低了可見度。」「然而，停擺是一個實質性的阻力：標普全球評級估計，政府每關閉一週，就可能削減 GDP 增長 0.1-0.2 個百分點。」 Fed rate cuts 聯準會降息 In September, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate for the first time since late 2024 and signaled that two more cuts could be in the cards later this year. 9 月，聯準會自 2024 年底以來首次下調了基準利率，並暗示今年晚些時候可能還會再降息兩次。 Gold has risen partly due to investor expectations that the Fed is entering a cycle of easing its monetary policy, according to Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. 道明證券 (TD Securities) 大宗商品策略主管 Bart Melek 表示，黃金上漲的部分原因是投資者預期聯準會正在進入一個寬鬆貨幣政策的週期。 With interest rates seemingly heading lower, gold is more attractive as a financial asset because investors aren't losing out on higher yields from Treasuries and other government bonds, he told investors in a report. And with inflation drifting up due to the impact of the Trump administration's tariffs , gold can also continue to offer an inflation hedge. 他在一份報告中告訴投資者，隨著利率似乎走低，黃金作為一種金融資產更具吸引力，因為投資者不會錯失國債和其他政府債券的更高收益。而且，由於川普政府關稅的影響導致通脹上升，黃金還可以繼續提供通脹對沖。 Gold "may be a better safe-haven than Treasuries," Melek wrote. "Add to that the fact that ore grades are dropping, the increased use of these factors of production suggests that gold would be better at protecting purchasing power." Melek 寫道，黃金「可能比國債是一個更好的避風港」。「再加上礦石品位正在下降，這些生產要素使用量的增加表明，黃金將更好地保護購買力。」 Global gold demand 全球黃金需求 Investments in gold have also been driven by other factors. Analysts point to strong gold demand from central banks around the world amid heightened geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine. 黃金投資也受到其他因素的推動。分析師指出，在全球地緣政治緊張局勢加劇（例如加沙和烏克蘭正在發生的戰爭）的情況下，全球央行對黃金的需求強勁。 "The gold rally started in 2022," Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS Global Wealth Management, said via email on Tuesday. The "trigger point" for the increase was when the U.S. and other Western allies moved to freeze around $300 billion of Russian foreign holdings at the beginning of the war in Ukraine, he added. 瑞銀全球財富管理公司大宗商品分析師 Giovanni Staunovo 週二通過電子郵件表示：「黃金漲勢始於 2022 年。」他補充說，價格上漲的「觸發點」是烏克蘭戰爭開始時，美國和其他西方盟友採取行動凍結了約 3,000 億美元的俄羅斯外國資產。 Central banks in other nations are "the quiet force behind this climb," deVere 's Green said. "They are buying close to one thousand [tons] of gold each year to reduce exposure to the dollar and to reinforce their financial resilience. When official institutions keep accumulating at this rate, they create a strong foundation beneath the market, but even that has limits." deVere 的 Green 表示，其他國家的央行是「這次上漲背後的無聲力量」。「他們每年購買近一千噸黃金，以減少對美元的敞口並增強其金融韌性。當官方機構以這種速度持續積累時，他們在市場下方創造了一個堅實的基礎，但即使是這樣也有其限制。」 Where could gold go from here? 黃金接下來會走向何方？ Some investment pros think gold has more room to run, pointing to ongoing economic challenges such as the slowing U.S. job market and rising inflation, as well as the Fed likely continuing to push down borrowing costs. 一些投資專家認為黃金還有更大的上漲空間，他們指出持續存在的經濟挑戰，例如美國就業市場放緩和通脹上升，以及聯準會可能繼續壓低借貸成本。 "We think the rally is not yet done — we expect prices to rise to $4,200/oz over the coming months — and keep our 'attractive' rating on gold in our global strategy," Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and global head of equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, told investors in an email. 瑞銀全球財富管理公司美洲區首席投資官兼全球股票主管 Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi 在一封電子郵件中告訴投資者：「我們認為漲勢尚未結束——我們預計未來幾個月價格將上漲到 4,200 美元/盎司——並在我們的全球策略中維持對黃金的‘有吸引力’評級。」 Goldman Sachs is forecasting that gold could hit $4,900 an ounce by December 2026, Reuters reported. 據路透社報導，高盛預測黃金到 2026 年 12 月可能達到每盎司 4,900 美元。 Still, experts urge average investors not to put all their eggs in one basket. Critics say gold isn't always the inflation hedge many claim and that there are more efficient ways to protect against potential loss of capital, such as derivative-based investments. 儘管如此，專家敦促普通投資者不要把所有的雞蛋放在一個籃子裡。批評者表示，黃金並不總是許多人聲稱的通脹對沖工具，而且還有更有效的方法來防止潛在的資本損失，例如基於衍生品的投資。 "Gold is perceived by many market participants as a safe-haven asset. But investors need to be aware it has a volatility of 10-15%," Staunovo noted. He added that smaller amounts of physical gold, such as gold coins or 1-gram bars , have larger ranges between buying and selling prices. Staunovo 指出：「黃金被許多市場參與者視為避險資產。但投資者需要意識到它有 10- 15% 的波動性。」他補充說，少量實物黃金，例如金幣或 1 克金條，買賣價格之間的差額更大。心得/評論：不是通膨，而是信任危機：華府政治僵局、政府關門與債務問題讓投資者懷疑「美國國力與治理品質」。美元體系的結構性挑戰：多國央行「去美元化」，使黃金重新成為全球儲備資產。美債收益下降、通膨上行：降息＋關稅推升物價，使黃金比美債更具吸引力。短期技術面仍有上行空間（至4,200–4,900美元），但中長期走勢將取決於實質利率與美國財政狀況。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 150.117.197.145 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1759975930.A.3C1.html

推

ck326

10/09 10:13, 2小時前 , 1^F

10/09 10:13, 1^F

推

grtfor

10/09 10:15, 2小時前 , 2^F

10/09 10:15, 2^F

推

yayan1010

10/09 10:15, 2小時前 , 3^F

10/09 10:15, 3^F