Re: [閒聊] 八分鐘搞懂凱因斯 & 海耶克

看板Economics (經濟學)作者DieLandkarte (地圖)時間16年前 (2010/01/28 23:00)推噓11(11推 0噓 4→)

留言15則, 12人參與討論串2/3 (看更多)

※ 引述《Iknow ( )》之銘言： : "Fear the boom and bust" : http://econstories.tv/home.html : 這是George Mason University的教授Russell Roberts與另一位作者的作品， : 用rap來說明凱因斯學派及奧地利學派的理論XD : MV也相當惡搞... 以下是我自己翻譯的如果有錯，還請指教我放在網誌上 http://www.wretch.cc/blog/Choushikan/18548311 不喜歡看網誌的下面有附歌詞 We’ve been going back and forth for a century 我們已經來來回回爭論一世紀 [Keynes] I want to steer markets, [凱因斯] 我要控制市場 [Hayek] I want them set free [海耶克] 我要讓他們自由操作 There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it 這是景氣急速擴張跟破產的循環，你是有有好理由去害怕他們 [Hayek] Blame low interest rates. [海耶克]問題是在低利率 [Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits [凱因斯]不~那是動物本能 [Keynes Sings:] John Maynard Keynes, wrote the book on modern macro 約翰 M 凱因斯，寫了現代總體經濟書 The man you need when the economy’s off track, [whoa] 他是一個當經濟脫軌時你需要的人 Depression, recession now your question’s in session 蕭條、衰退，在現在這時是你的問題 Have a seat and I’ll school you in one simple lesson 挑個位子坐，我將簡單地給你上一堂課 BOOM, 1929 the big crash 磅!1929年的大衝擊 We didn’t bounce back—economy’s in the trash 我們當時並沒有從經濟谷底裡反彈 Persistent unemployment, the result of sticky wages 持續的失業、是因為僵固的薪資 Waiting for recovery? Seriously? That’s outrageous! 等待它自己復原? 認真的嗎? 這真是個罪過! I had a real plan any fool can understand 我有個實際的計畫，任何傻瓜都能理解的 The advice, real simple—boost aggregate demand! 一個忠告，實際的抬高總合需求 C, I, G, all together gets to Y C、I、G，這些加在一起就會得到Y Make sure the total’s growing, watch the economy fly 只要確立了加起來會成長，就等著看經濟起飛吧! We’ve been going back and forth for a century 我們已經來來回回爭論一世紀 [Keynes] I want to steer markets, [凱因斯] 我要控制市場 [Hayek] I want them set free [海耶克] 我要讓他們自由操作 There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it 這是景氣急速擴張跟破產的循環，你是有有好理由去害怕他們 [Hayek] Blame low interest rates. [海耶克]問題是在低利率 [Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits [凱因斯]不~那是動物本能 You see it’s all about spending, hear the register cha-ching 你看，這些都是關於花費，聽聽看收銀機的聲音吧 Circular flow, the dough is everything 金錢循環流程，錢就是任何一切 So if that flow is getting low, doesn’t matter the reason 所以如果流量變小，且先不管原因 We need more government spending, now it’s stimulus season 我們需要更多的政府支出，這就是所謂的刺激景氣 So forget about saving, get it straight out of your head 所以不要再管什麼存錢，把他從你腦袋給丟掉 Like I said, in the long run—we’re all dead 如同我說的，在長期，我們都死了 Savings is destruction, that’s the paradox of thrift 存錢是具毀滅性的，這就是所謂的儲蓄的詭論 Don’t keep money in your pocket, or that growth will never lift… 不要再把錢放在你口袋 because… 因為... Business is driven by the animal spirits 商業活動本來就是用動物本能在操控 The bull and the bear, and there’s reason to fear its 牛市或熊市，這是怕他們的原因 Effects on capital investment, income and growth 它影響資本投資，所得跟經濟成長 That’s why the state should fill the gap with stimulus both… 這就是為什麼應該要用刺激去擴大缺口 The monetary and the fiscal, they’re equally correct 方式是使用貨幣政策與財政政策，他們是一樣的正確 Public works, digging ditches, war has the same effect 政府操作，增加支出，戰爭也是有同樣效果 Even a broken window helps the glass man have some wealth 甚至是打破窗戶，也可以幫助玻璃業者增加財富 The multiplier driving higher the economy’s health 它的乘數效果會帶領整個經濟體走向健康 And if the Central Bank’s interest rate policy tanks 那如果中央銀行持續使用低利率政策 A liquidity trap, that new money’s stuck in the banks! 就會造成流動性陷阱，新的錢會卡在銀行裡 Deficits could be the cure, you been looking for 然而我們已經找到，讓赤字可以被治癒的方法 Let the spending soar, now that you know the score 就是讓花費更多，現在你已經知道它的效果 My General Theory’s made quite an impression 我的一般理論有著相當的影響 [a revolution] I transformed the econ profession [革命性的] 我改變了經濟的專業 You know me, modesty, still I’m taking a bow 你知道我，謙虛地，向大家鞠躬 Say it loud, say it proud, we’re all Keynesians now 來，大聲說，我們現在都是凱因斯學派 We’ve been going back and forth for a century 我們已經來來回回爭論一世紀 [Keynes] I want to steer markets, [凱因斯] 我要控制市場 [Hayek] I want them set free [海耶克] 我要讓他們自由操作 There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it 這是景氣急速擴張跟破產的循環，你是有有好理由去害怕他們 [Hayek] Blame low interest rates. [海耶克]問題是在低利率 [Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits [凱因斯]不~那是動物本能 Hayek sings: I’ll begin in broad strokes, just like my friend Keynes 該我來講講，就如同我的朋友凱因斯 His theory conceals the mechanics of change, 他的理論隱匿了一些技術性的改變 That simple equation, too much aggregation 那些簡單的方程式，太多的總合 Ignores human action and motivation 而忽略了人們的行為與動機 And yet it continues as a justification 現在如同法庭辯護一樣持續著 For bailouts and payoffs by pols with machinations 在政客們機械式的紓困之下 You provide them with cover to sell us a free lunch 提供了一個不勞而獲的機會 Then all that we’re left with is debt, and a bunch 這只會留給我們一大堆的債務 If you’re living high on that cheap credit hog 如果我們生活在高水準卻在低信用下 Don’t look for cure from the hair of the dog 就別想要在狗的毛上找什麼解藥 Real savings come first if you want to invest 如果你想要投資，首先先做實質的儲蓄 The market coordinates time with interest 市場下會回報你同等的利息 Your focus on spending is pushing on thread 如果你只專注在花費上，那將會走向毀滅之路 In the long run, my friend, it’s your theory that’s dead 在長期下，如同我朋友說的，你的理論也早已死了 So sorry there, buddy, if that sounds like invective 如果這裡講的有點難聽，我在這裡說抱歉，各位夥伴 Prepared to get schooled in my Austrian perspective 準備來場我的奧地利學派的學術洗禮吧 We’ve been going back and forth for a century 我們已經來來回回爭論一世紀 [Keynes] I want to steer markets, [凱因斯] 我要控制市場 [Hayek] I want them set free [海耶克] 我要讓他們自由操作 There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it 這是景氣急速擴張跟破產的循環，你是有有好理由去害怕他們 [Hayek] Blame low interest rates. [海耶克]問題是在低利率 [Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits [凱因斯]不~那是動物本能 The place you should study isn’t the bust 我們需要學習的並不是破產 It’s the boom that should make you feel leery, that’s the thrust 而是景氣急速擴張，你應該要更感到小心翼翼，這是個重點 Of my theory, the capital structure is key. 在我的理論哩，資本結構是個關鍵 Malinvestments wreck the economy 不當的投資是會破壞整個經濟體 The boom gets started with an expansion of credit 整個景氣急速擴張會開啟一個擴張性的信貸 The Fed sets rates low, are you starting to get it? 聯準會會降低利率，那你會做什麼呢? That new money is confused for real loanable funds 新的貨幣投入是因為被迷惑於實質可貸資金 But it’s just inflation that’s driving the ones 然而這只是受到通膨的操控 Who invest in new projects like housing construction 投資就有點像是一個房屋的建構 The boom plants the seeds for its future destruction 景氣急速擴張就像是一種植物，未來會讓房屋毀滅的種子 The savings aren’t real, consumption’s up too 此時，不再實際的儲蓄，消費也隨之提高 And the grasping for resources reveals there’s too few 於是從總總跡象可以窺見，那實在是太少了 So the boom turns to bust as the interest rates rise 所以，當利息開始上升時，就是景氣蓬勃轉到破產的時刻 With the costs of production, price signals were lies 在產出成本、價格信號之時 The boom was a binge that’s a matter of fact 景氣整個就狂歡了起來 Now its devalued capital that makes up the slack. 現在當資本開始貶值時，瞬間的景氣就沉默了 Whether it’s the late twenties or two thousand and five 在此時，2005年 Booming bad investments, seems like they’d thrive 不好的投資蓬勃發展，看樣子是十分的興盛 You must save to invest, don’t use the printing press 你一定要小心的投資，不要像印刷機一樣瘋狂投資 Or a bust will surely follow, an economy depressed 否則，經濟衰退一定會來臨，一個整體經濟的衰退 Your so-called “stimulus” will make things even worse 你們所謂的"刺激"，會讓事情變得更糟糕 It’s just more of the same, more incentives perversed 那只會造成更多邪惡的動機 And that credit crunch ain’t a liquidity trap 而且信用破產，並不代表是所謂的流動性陷阱 Just a broke banking system, I’m done, that’s a wrap. 只是個糟糕的銀行機制。我說完了，到此結束吧! We’ve been going back and forth for a century 我們已經來來回回爭論一世紀 [Keynes] I want to steer markets, [凱因斯] 我要控制市場 [Hayek] I want them set free [海耶克] 我要讓他們自由操作 There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it 這是景氣急速擴張跟破產的循環，你是有有好理由去害怕他們 [Hayek] Blame low interest rates. [海耶克]問題是在低利率 [Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits [凱因斯]不~那是動物本能 “The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.” John Maynard Keynes The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money “The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.” F A Hayek The Fatal Conceit -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.47.100.183