[問題] 晨星裡基金 106 的課程內容
聯結：
http://news.morningstar.com/classroom2/course.asp?docId=2873&page=2&CN=COM
其中有一段是：
A market-timer who picked the better performer half the time still ended up
way behind the market after two decades.
We found that not until the timer's hit rate reached 65% did he beat
the S&P 500. In other words, the market-timer had to be right two out of
three times to justify the effort.
這段話一直看不太懂
我猜大意應該是說，在半數時間有較好績效的市場擇時者，二十年後依舊落後市場
我們發現，直到擇時者的 hit rate 達到 65% 時，他才打敗 S&P 500
換句話說，市場擇時者必須在三次中有兩次是正確的，才能證明其努力的成果
煩請版上大大指教
謝謝
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