[北美] 石油海洋工程業缺人中..
原文：http://tinyurl.com/2ynv5j
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People deficit likely to cause further delay in projects through 2010
Offshore staff
CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts -- Large oil and gas production projects
worldwide are likely to continue to suffer delays resulting from an
increasing shortfall of qualified project engineering resources. According
to a new analysis by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), an IHS Inc.
company, there could be a potential 10-15% "people deficit" by 2010.
CERA's conclusion is based on analysis of the engineering and project
management staff needed to deliver the over 400 major projects expected to
come onstream in the next five years. This demand analysis was compared to
the current and expected future staff available for upstream projects from
all major international and regional engineering and project management
contractors.
The analysis indicates that engineering and project management personnel are
insufficient to meet 2007 upstream project demand and it forecasts that design
and project management availability will be an important factor going forward
for development of new oil and gas fields.
"Our modeling shows that unless there is a dramatic change in the industry,
the next few years will experience a greater imbalance between needed and
available staff," says Pritesh Patel, study co-author and associate director
of CERA's Capital Costs Analysis Forum. "Pressure in the industry continues to
increase as companies vie for a limited pool of skilled resources, and
personnel costs rise as companies recruit from each other. We have seen projects
where no one bids for the work because they do not have adequate resources,
and the quality of the engineering workforce will increasingly become an area
of great concern and focus in the medium term."
The average age in the industry is 51 years. CERA anticipates that over 50% of
today's workforce will have retired by 2015, an attrition rate of 6% per year.
This will create a significant gap in available staff hours. While the industry
is recruiting aggressively, there will only be a 2% influx of new entrants
in 2008, forecast to increase to 5% in 2010 as more graduates gain the
experience necessary to work on complex projects.
The net result of this 10-15% shortfall of qualified, available staff by 2010
will be increased costs and further delays that will have cascading effects
in other markets, CERA predicts. As the project engineering talent pool
continues to shrink and the number of technically difficult projects such as
deepwater, heavy oil, or severe climate operations increases, the demand for
the remaining highly qualified staff is expected to increase significantly.
"CERA expects this short-term deficiency to lead inevitably to a trend of
increasing delays and problems on mega oil and gas projects," says Candida
Scott, CERA research director. "Given the number of large complex projects
scheduled for the next few years, and this trend of decreasing capacity, one
has to ask if all of them are going to hit their target dates, or will there
be some delays."
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