[新聞] 1200億美金國庫券明日到期 能否償還存疑?已回收
1.原文連結：
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-15/treasury-paying-120-billion-of
-bills-due-doubted-as-fitch-warns.html
2.內容：
Treasury Paying $120 Billion in Bills Doubted as Fitch Warns
Investors holding $120 billion of Treasury bills coming due tomorrow are
increasingly worried that they won’t get paid.
Rates on the bills, maturing the same day that Treasury Secretary Jacob J.
Lew has said the U.S. will exhaust its borrowing capacity, have surged 16
basis points, or 0.16 percentage point, to 0.36 percent this week, according
to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The securities, issued a year earlier,
traded at a rate of negative 0.01 percent as recently as Sept. 26.
“That is how fear manifests itself,” said Marc Fovinci, head of fixed
income at Ferguson Wellman Capital Management Inc. in Portland, Oregon, who
helps invest $3.5 billion and holds about $500,000 of Oct. 31 bills in one
account. “The market is discounting a day, or several days delay in payments.
”
Lew told Congress last week the extraordinary measures being used to avoid
breaching the debt ceiling “will be exhausted no later than Oct. 17” and
the department will have about $30 billion to pay obligations if Congress
fails to reach an agreement to lift the cap. Fitch Ratings placed the U.S.’s
AAA credit rating on a negative watch yesterday, citing the government’s
failure to raise its borrowing limit as the deadline approaches.
‘Last Gallon’
The Treasury should have enough money to pay off the Oct. 17 bills, according
to Ira Jersey, an interest-rate strategist in New York at Credit Suisse Group
AG, one of the 21 primary dealer obligated to bid at Treasury auctions. The
U.S. raised $13 billion in “new cash” through yesterday’s sale of $65
billion in three- and six-month bills, which should leave the government with
about $40 billion once the Oct. 17 bills mature, he said.
“After that the government is running on its last gallon of financial gas,”
Jersey wrote in an e-mail. “After Oct. 24, the government will be running
on fumes.”
The next securities maturing after the Oct. 17 debt are $93 billion of bills
due Oct. 24. Rates on those bills have risen 20 basis points to 0.47 percent
this week and touched 0.53 percent, the highest since they were sold in
April. The rate was negative as recently as Sept. 27.
‘Close Enough’
“We are close enough to the deadline that, even if the latest headlines
suggest the talks are progressing, there will be those risk-averse investors
who decide they don’t want to hold those bills,” said John Davies, a U.S.
interest-rate strategist at Standard Chartered Plc in London. “For many
Treasury bill holders, a delayed payment can cause major problems and that
means you have to shift your positioning, which creates selling pressure.”
The Treasury is scheduled to sell $68 billion in bills today, including $20
billion of four-week securities, $22 billion in one-year debt and $26 billion
in 189-day cash management bills.
The sizes of the four-week and 27-week bills indicates the Treasury has “
slightly more room left under the debt limit” than previously estimated,
according to Wrightson ICAP LLC, an economic advisory company specializing in
government finance.
“There is very little chance that the Treasury will have any trouble rolling
over the Oct. 24 bills even if - as seems quite possible -- the debt ceiling
dispute drags into next week,” according to a commentary on the Jersey City,
New Jersey-based company’s website yesterday.
Yesterday’s Auctions
The three-month bills sold yesterday drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.13, below
the 4.52 average over the past 10 auctions. The high rate of 0.13 percent was
the most since February 2011. The bid-to-cover ratio at the six-month bill
auction was 3.52 versus an average of 5.07 at the previous 10 sales. It drew
a rate of 0.15 percent, the highest since November 2012.
This was the second-consecutive week bill that auctions attracted
lower-than-average demand amid the budget wrangling in Washington.
“The bill auctions were very poor,” said Thomas Simons, a government-debt
economist in New York at primary dealer Jefferies LLC. “Unless there is some
type of agreement in Washington, the bill market will continue to trade
choppily and auctions will not go well.”
Senate leaders resumed talks aimed at avoiding a default and ending the
government shutdown after the Republican-controlled House scrapped a vote on
its plan.
Initial Conditions
Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell,
a Republican, had suspended their talks earlier while the House was
considering its own bill. The House proposal contained almost none of
Republicans’ initial conditions for ending the shutdown and raising the debt
ceiling.
The emerging Senate agreement would fund the government through Jan. 15,
2014, and suspend the debt ceiling through Feb. 7, 2014. The Treasury
Department could use its extraordinary measures to delay default for about
another month beyond that, said a Senate Democratic aide who spoke on
condition of anonymity to discuss the plan.
The Debt Ceiling
“Although Fitch continues to believe that the debt ceiling will be raised
soon, the political brinkmanship and reduced financing flexibility could
increase the risk of a U.S. default,” Fitch analysts Ed Parker, Tony
Stringer and Douglas Renwick wrote in a report published yesterday. Fitch
said it expects to resolve its rating watch negative outlook on the U.S. by
the first quarter of 2014.
Moody’s View
Moody’s Investors Service, which rates the U.S. a stable Aaa grade,
reiterated that it expects the debt ceiling to be raised, averting a default.
The company also anticipates “that the U.S. government will pay interest and
principal on its debt even if the statutory debt limit isn’t raised.”
Standard & Poor’s stripped the U.S. of its top credit grade on Aug. 5, 2011,
citing Washington gridlock and the lack of an agreement on a way to contain
its increasing ratio of debt to gross domestic product. The ratio of public
debt to GDP is projected to decline to 74.6 percent in 2015 after peaking
next year at 76.2 percent, according to a Congressional Budget Office
forecast in May.
“We do think what’s going on right now validates our decision to lower the
rating one notch,” John Chambers, a managing director of sovereign ratings
at S&P, said yesterday in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “
Surveillance.” “We think there will be an 11th hour deal, and that is our
working assumption.”
Record Low
While the S&P downgrade didn’t result in investors charging the U.S. more to
borrow, as 10-year yields fell to a record 1.38 percent in July 2012, the
move contributed to a global stock-market rout that erased about $6 trillion
in value from July 26 to Aug. 12, 2011.
Citigroup Inc. is bracing for a possible U.S. default by avoiding some
short-term Treasury investments amid what Chief Executive Officer Michael
Corbat called “a dangerous flirtation with the debt ceiling.”
Corbat made the remark during a conference call yesterday to discuss
third-quarter results at New York-based Citigroup. The bank doesn’t own
Treasuries that mature in October and holds few with terms ending before Nov.
16, Chief Financial Officer John Gerspach said.
Although rates on bills have risen, they are lower than historical levels.
One-month rates have averaged 1.5 percent in the past 10 years. During that
time they touched a high of 5.26 percent in November 2006 and dropped to a
low of negative 0.09 percent in December 2008.
Spending Cuts
Two years ago, one-month rates climbed to a 29-month high of 0.18 percent as
the Aug. 2, 2011, deadline set by Treasury to avoid a default approached.
They traded at negative 0.046 percent in December 2012 before a year-end
trigger that forced automatic spending cuts and tax increases.
The Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington-based nonprofit research group,
estimates that the Treasury will actually be unable to pay all the government
’s bills on time at some point between Oct. 22 and Nov. 1. While the
Treasury will probably be able to delay the true drop-dead date for a few
days, it is unlikely to be able to do so beyond Nov. 1 because several large
payments are due before then, the center says.
“There’s just a general interest in the market to be out of any paper in
the market that could potentially be impacted by the debt ceiling in any way,
” said Andrew Hollenhorst, fixed-income strategist at Citigroup in New York.
“That’s just general concern around the debt ceiling and concern around
something the market doesn’t feel it completely understands.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Kruger in New York at
dkruger1@bloomberg.net; John Detrixhe in New York at jdetrixhe1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at
dliedtka@bloomberg.net
3.心得/評論(必需填寫)：
明天有鉅款要還 但不要緊還撐得下去
10/24又有一筆要還 撐住啊!!
這樣玩下去 違約高峰期會在10/22-11/1左右
基本上拖到20號以後就是抓緊覽趴 小心不要出事了
走著瞧~~
--
若將英文字母的先後順序轉換成數字
則有知識(knowledge)只得到 11+14+15+23+12+5+4+7+5 = 96分
有努力(hardwork) 也只有 8+1+18+4+23+15+18+11 = 98分
但有態度(attitude) 則得到 1+20+20+9+20+21+4+5 =100分
當然你也可以OGC四次得到相同結果
(OGC OGC OGC OGC) (15+7+3)*4 =100分
--
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