[心得] 2010年的成功化頭為底例子已回收
化頭為底的行情,在過去並不是沒有發生過,經典的例子是2010年,
當時出現了8395與8190兩個頭,該年6月一度破頸而下,
看似M頭即將成型,你以為這樣就結束了?
錯了,後來硬是拉起,且在9月突破頸線8190,M頭成功轉化為W底,
並在隔年看到9220的高點才反轉而下,現在的盤跟2010年中差不多,
同樣是有機會形成化頭為底反轉而上的局面,
我會這麼揣測,是因為台股在9000點本益比依然只有16倍,
過往多頭結束時常可接近20倍,再加上外資今年大買,持股成本約在9150-9200,
假若外資要出,勢必要做量做價,末升段長多高點就以往經驗,較少出現高檔量縮,
多是高檔連續大量的情況,現在的情況是破中長多上升軌道,
但若能在9150以下打成頭肩底,然後有效突破,就有機會出現過9593的末升段.
關鍵在於來到頸線附近(9100-9150)注意量能變化,如果量開始增溫,
外資期權有效翻多,現貨加大買超力道,轉頭肩底的機會就會加大許多,
明年的經濟展望在上半年依然樂觀,變數在下半年,
因此末升段如出現,高點會出現在第一或第二季,當然會有人在意選舉結果,
我只能說,選舉結果只會影響一時,國際股市與外資的動向才是重點.
何況接下來還有2016,所以,接下來行情來到頸線一帶時,會是多空決戰重要點,
到時就看那一方勝出,然後順勢操作了
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