[標的] 大盤
1. 標的:大盤
2. 分類:多/空/請益/心得:多/短線高檔震盪/中長線續多不變
3.分析/正文:行情站上萬點,量卻放不太出來,籌碼則是呈現外資法人持續買超
但散戶融資不增反減融券反倒增加的情況,代表萬點以上散戶依然是相對保守
甚至偏空的態度應對,外資卻是沒有在怕,走勢溫吞但持續萬點上上下下震盪往上的走法,
除了控盤者目的要讓萬點由原本的壓力轉換為支撐外,
還要刻意營造散戶對於萬點以上不安穩的看法,讓散戶戒慎恐懼,
留空單的不回補還加空,屆時溫水煮青蛙到了一個點後再上演帶量強軋逼散戶補空,
一旦軋空出現,恐怕不會只漲個300-500點就會結束了,而會讓放空追空者遭受重創,
現在的台股本益比仍在十年均值之下尚不到15倍,國際主要股市也還強勢,
只要外資期權未見避險部位異常升高,台積鴻海大立光等權值股未見異常轉弱,
國際股市不大幅反轉走跌,我想行情依然會是盤堅看上的走勢,
大家反而漸漸要去習慣逢回萬點以下是買點的水位了.
4. 進退場機制:短線逢回至萬點附近或以下為買點
(各位投資人必須逐漸習慣萬點是低點與買點)停損9750,中期轉弱點9550,
逢高10200附近量急縮可先少許拔檔,量未急縮則續抱,
見明顯跳空或帶量中長紅K反應加碼,萬點以上若出現這訊號為強軋徵兆,
此時即可期待更大的行情.
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