[標的] 大盤
1. 標的:大盤
2. 分類:多/空/請益/心得:中長多/短空/注意中長多格局下的漲多修正
3. 分析/正文:行情走到這邊,中長線當然還是偏多,但是短線卻是讓我看到
一些相當不尋常的多頭警訊,6/26那根長紅過後出現十字星,
近期的拉回將該長紅低點跌破,且近日明顯是非電子強於電子,
電子反而率先走弱,似有拉非電子出電子的跡象,加以美科技股短線成頭,
外資在期貨近日空單不斷增加,也代表他們避險需求開始升高,
這些現象值得大家提高警戒.
電子股指數必須有效突破且站穩441點,才能脫離短線繼續下修的危機,
也才能不再成為拖累大盤的潛在因素,縱使大盤短線還可能有更高點,
但已不適合再追高,在此雖不建議做空,但應該慢慢減碼,至少等電子股脫離弱勢
或是外資期貨避險的訊號告一段落再來回頭加碼也不遲,大盤10300若有效跌破,
則建議加大減碼,這一回說不定有可能好幾百點.
4. 進退場機制:電子股指數未有效站回441點前,暫不做任何買進與加碼動作,
持股逢高減碼了結1/3,若大盤指數有效跌破10300則再迅速減碼,
如要放空,則確認大盤不過10500時再少量放空弱勢股,逢急跌底部出量補回,
停損參考置10700
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