[標的] 大盤
看板Stock (股票)作者aitt (非主流,有何不可(M))時間7年前 (2017/07/09 23:01)推噓75(80推 5噓 23→)留言108則, 88人參與討論串60/237 (看更多)
1. 標的:大盤
2. 分類:多/空/請益/心得:中長多架構未變/短空/留意拉回持續
3. 分析/正文:大盤月線上周五小幅跌破,之前幾次月線跌破都成了假跌破買點,
但是這次卻是不太一樣的情況,值得大家戒慎,之前有提過電子股率先走弱的情況,
目前看來電子依然沒有脫離弱勢的訊號,只要美國NASDAQ不振,電子股走跌持續,
大盤行情就難免要繼續往下,到後來連原本較強的非電族群也會陸續轉弱撐不下去,
周線上也能發現周KD高檔交叉而下,歷史經驗發生這樣的情形少說要測試季線,
甚至是半年線,外加籌碼面外資在現貨賣超加大,期權的避險空單還是一直增加,
這些都是後市隱憂,尤其更應該提防的是本週到了後半段進入台指期結算倒數,
需要特別提防是否會有明顯摜壓往下的力道
4. 進退場機制:大盤沒有有效站回10432前,短線持股逢彈宜減不宜增,
另一個觀察重點為電子股指數438,未站穩前大盤高點也會相對有限,
不必躁進,現應留心的是60分KD,日KD可能低檔鈍化,
行情下測幅度可能來到萬點附近甚至跌破,待落底訊號出現再進不遲,
放空者可以弱勢類股小試身手避險,或以期指或選擇權避險現貨
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