Re: [請益] 債券為什麼Price in這麼多
看板Stock (股票)作者LaBronJames (King LA Bron James)時間4天前 (2024/09/13 20:33)推噓35(36推 1噓 46→)留言83則, 42人參與討論串2/4 (看更多)
這東西就取決於供需
全世界共同現象就是老齡化
老齡化兩大特點 消費降低 風險偏好降低
老人寧可要2%利息
也不要年化8%報酬但有波動
年輕人可以說了不起三五年解套 大不了再賺
老人不敢 老人錢又多
給他2%他可能都吞了
何況現在有3.5%
所以債券需求一定大於股票
再來是這波高利率
一半來自疫情供應鏈未能即時修復
一半來自發錢
前面已經修復
後面效果會減弱
長期利率還是取決於消費力
而這只會比過去二十年更差
之後就算有關稅
參考2018-19附近經驗
關稅是一次性的
還有美國是服務消費為主
商品占消費比很小
最後是美國這幾年可以高利率
是因為高通膨稀釋債務
高通膨不在
美國勢必擴表
如果不造成通膨
擴表why bothers?
老人越來越多
貧富差距越來越大
大部分的擴表的錢都是以資產形式存在
不必然造成通膨
前段時間的利率飆升
比較像技術面的
因為之前通膨不確定 很多人喊升息
大部分人不想被嘎觀望
造成短期利率飆高
但長期基本面 利率下降趨勢還是不變
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這是數學問題 實證問題
這次高通膨供應鏈問題和通膨預期心理加乘
之後不必然有
08那次擴表幅度不輸這次 也沒通膨
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老人買保險 保險買債券
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保險 然後保險錢哪裡來的?
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※ 編輯: LaBronJames (111.71.89.189 臺灣), 09/13/2024 21:34:24
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