[新聞] 川普政策風險如何反映在美國國債上

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川普政策風險如何反映在美國國債上 https://is.gd/Bw5GYP 路透報導：Davide Barbuscia 編譯：Paritosh Bansal 及 Daniel Flynn April 8, 202511:56 PM GMT+8 紐約，4月8日（路透社） — 自川普總統於1月上任以來，美國基準國債的殖利率大幅下降，但這個數字中所蘊含的一項風險指標——「期間溢酬」（term premium）——卻始終維持正值，顯示投資人對前景仍感到不安。「期間溢酬」是殖利率中的一個組成部分，用來衡量投資人在將資金借出長達10年期間所要求的風險補償。儘管10年期美債殖利率自川普就職以來下跌了約50個基點，但期間溢酬依然維持在正值。這項理論性指標反映了市場對未來貨幣政策走向的不確定性、對美國政府信用的評估等各種因素。紐約聯邦儲備銀行根據一個廣泛使用的模型所計算的期間溢酬顯示，該指標自去年底川普聲勢走高並最終當選後便持續轉為正值，而這在過去數年是罕見的。如今，川普重塑美國對外關係的作法——發動貿易戰、挑戰美國制度與法治基礎——已引起七位投資人與分析師的警惕，他們指出美國政府信用風險正在上升。兩位市場專家指出，美國國債的期間溢酬可能正反映這些政治與制度風險。「政府運作穩定性令人疑慮，聯邦體制未來的輪廓也不明朗，最終甚至出現對法治與政策可預測性的擔憂，」Lazard資產管理的首席市場策略師Ronald Temple說。殖利率下跌，但風險補償仍在：債券市場的警訊持續為正的期間溢酬可能是債券市場「警察」（bond vigilantes）蠢蠢欲動的早期信號。這些投資人可能透過提高政府融資成本，對川普政策施加約束，儘管近期美債市場仍維持強勁。部分投資人表示，川普的政策議程正在削弱美國資產的長期吸引力，這可能最終會使美國調降利率變得更加困難。「我認為從長期來看，這些政策對美國經濟成長是負面影響，對美國作為投資目的地也是不利的，」Temple說。「最終——不是明天——這會提高美國政府、企業與消費者的資金成本。」當然，期間溢酬的堅挺可能受多種因素影響，並不容易釐清。 Piper Sandler全球政策與資產配置主管Benson Durham表示，由於美國國債在全球金融市場中的主導地位，美債價格往往受到與股票吸引力的相對比較、以及市場對財政赤字預期等多種因素驅動。不過，Durham也補充說，期間溢酬同時反映了不斷上升的政治風險。風險仍在上升：即使殖利率大跌，期間溢酬仍正值上週市場劇烈震盪，即使美債殖利率急劇下滑，紐約聯準會的模型仍顯示期間溢酬維持在正值。這是在川普將進口關稅提高至20世紀初水平後發生的。週四，基準殖利率下跌14個基點，但期間溢酬僅下滑2個基點；週五殖利率再跌6個基點，期間溢酬也僅下降至25個基點，根據數據顯示。這個模型由法蘭克福金融管理學院（Frankfurt School of Finance and Management）金融與貨幣經濟學教授Emanuel Moench及其他兩位經濟學家開發。Moench在訪談中表示，這個模型提供了「對美債市場風險的統計代理指標」。雖然它反映政策風險，但無法完全拆解對債券價格造成影響的各種因素。「如果你無法再將美國國債視為避險資產，」Moench表示，「這就會對期間溢酬形成上行壓力。」政策風險引發投資人不安超過六位投資人與分析師表示，川普政府在治理、經濟與外交等諸多政策上的方向令人不安。例如，試圖重塑聯邦政府架構、削減政府支出、對主要貿易夥伴（包括盟國）徵收大規模關稅，這些舉措已經打擊了企業與消費者信心，也帶來經濟衰退的陰影。此外，川普政府傾向採用非常規手段處理債務問題，並積極推動高額減稅政策，也使得債券投資人感到風險升高。分析師表示，這可能進一步惡化美國36兆美元的債務總額與償債能力。對外強硬的手段也促使外國銀行與官員尋找替代美元與美國資產的方案。雖然投資人普遍認為短期內沒有替代方案——由於美國經濟規模、資本市場深度與制度穩健性——但長遠來看情況可能改變。英國投資公司Ruffer的基金經理Matt Smith表示：「過去依賴美國安全保護傘的債權國—— 如日本、韓國、台灣、新加坡和德國——持有大量美國資產。如果這些國家開始減碼或只是對匯率風險進行對沖，美國資產與美元都可能大幅貶值。」 Ruffer目前管理約240億美元資產，其對美國風險資產的曝險極低，美元比重也接近零。Smi th表示，這反映了高估值與「政權轉變的潛力」，指的是美國安全保護政策可能出現的重大轉向。法治與制度風險：國際信心的根基動搖分析師指出，川普政府與司法部門的衝突，可能在長期內侵蝕國際社會對美國制度的信任，而這正是支撐外國投資人購買美國資產的根本。一位不願具名的信評機構消息人士表示，他們密切關注美國是否出現「法治基礎」的侵蝕，這會影響機構對美國制度強度的評估，而這是信用風險評級中的核心要素。 AXA投資管理公司的大衛・佩奇表示：「投資人擔心川普政府正在削弱制度穩健性。」他指出，政府未遵守法院命令、以及總統與官員公開攻擊法官的言論，令人關注。「如果美國長期以來強大的制度出現持續性變化，那麼全球資產配置可能因此轉向，最終衝擊美國資產與美元，」佩奇說。 PGIM固定收益投資的首席地緣政治分析師梅希爾・馬庫也指出，投資人密切關注川普對總統職權的廣泛解釋，也就是「單一行政權理論」（unitary executive theory）——這是一種幾乎所有決策權集中於總統的法律觀點。「我相信，隨著時間推進，投資人會愈來愈關注川普試圖建立的『單一行政體制』，即所有政策決策都要經白宮通過，」馬庫說。「這絕對是個負面訊號。」 DoubleLine副投資長傑佛瑞・舍曼表示，政策不確定性最終可能導致外資信心惡化，促使資本回流。「到最後，人們會不想再跟你做生意，」舍曼說。「建立信任與良好關係需要很長的時間，但摧毀它卻可能在一夕之間完成。」心得評論：這篇路透社報導詳盡解說了美債「期間溢酬」，簡單說就是投資人開始懷疑美國政府的償債能力與風險示警。文中也提到，若美債主要債權國開始對美債減碼或匯率風險對沖，美元計價資產可能大幅貶值。另一個我自己想到的，若美債主要債權國為了減少對美貿易順差而減碼美債，換回本幣，那可能也有相同風險。原文： NEW YORK, April 8 (Reuters) - The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury bond has fallen dramatically since President Donald Trump took office in January. But one measure of risk embedded in that number has remained positive, in a sign of inv estor nervousness. The term premium, a component of yields, is a measure of the compensation invest ors want for the risk of lending money for the life of a 10-year Treasury bond. It has stayed positive even as the yield on the 10-year has fallen about 50 basi s points since Trump's inauguration. The Reuters Daily Briefing newsletter provides all the news you need to start yo ur day. Sign up here. A theoretical measure, the term premium captures a variety of elements, includin g uncertainty about future monetary policy and the U.S. government's credit wort hiness, investors and academics say. The measure of term premium - calculated by the New York Federal Reserve, based on a widely followed model - shows it turned steadily positive late last year, t racking Trump's rising popularity and eventual election win, after years of bein g in the red. With Trump now rewriting the terms of U.S. engagement with the rest of the world - starting trade wars and appearing to test the strength of U.S. institutions a nd the rule of law - seven investors and analysts said the risks to U.S. governm ent's creditworthiness are increasing. Two separate market experts said the term premium on U.S. Treasuries was likely reflecting those risks. "There are questions around the stability of government functioning, uncertainty around the shape of the federal bureaucracy, and then ultimately questions incr easingly around the rule of law and predictability," said Ronald Temple, chief m arket strategist for Lazard's financial advisory and asset management businesses . In a statement, White House spokesman Kush Desai said Trump's economic agenda wi ll boost growth and reaffirm America's credibility, via reforms including tax cu ts and slashing wasteful government spending. He did not address Reuters' questi on about the term premium. Supporters of Trump's administration have cited the sharp fall in Treasury yield s as a sign of the debt market’s faith in his policies. But many investors say yields are being dragged lower by a deterioration in the U.S. economic outlook, which is causing interest rate expectations to drop. BOND VIGILANTES A persistently positive term premium could be an early sign that bond vigilantes - investors who may have the power to check Trump by making it punitively expen sive for the U.S. government to borrow - are stirring in the background despite the recent rally in Treasuries. Some investors said they are getting nervous that the Trump administration's pol icy agenda is eroding the long-term attractiveness of U.S. assets. This could ev entually make it harder for it to lower interest rates. "I think this is all net negative for U.S. growth in the long run, and it's a ne t negative for the U.S. as an investment destination," said Lazard's Temple. "Ov er time - not tomorrow - it raises the cost of capital for the U.S. government a nd for company and consumers in the country." To be sure, the stickiness in the term premium could point to a wide array of fa ctors, which are hard to delineate. Benson Durham, head of global policy and asset allocation at Piper Sandler, a fi nancial services firm, said given the Treasury market's outsized role in global finance, prices of U.S. government bonds tend to reflect drivers such as Treasur y bonds' attractiveness versus stocks and investor expectations on fiscal defici ts. But Durham added that the term premium would also capture rising political risks . POSITIVE RISK Amid a market rout last week, the New York Fed's model for the term premium has remained positive even as benchmark yields dropped, after Trump raised tariffs o n imports to levels last seen in the early 1900s. On Thursday, when benchmark yields dropped 14 basis points, the term premium fel l only 2 basis points. On Friday, when yields fell another 6 basis points, the t erm premium fell 6 basis points to 25 basis points, data shows. Emanuel Moench, a professor of financial and monetary economics at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, is one of three economists who created the mo del used by the New York Fed. In an interview, Moench said his framework provided "a statistical proxy of the risk in the Treasury market". Although it reflected policy risks, it could not d isentangle the various factors weighing on bonds, he said. "If you can't really trust Treasuries as a safe-haven asset anymore," Moench sai d, it "should put upward pressure on the term premium." POLICY NERVOUSNESS More than half a dozen investors and analysts said the Trump administration’s p olicies across a wide range of issues, from governance to economics and foreign relations, were rankling them. Trump's attempt to remake the federal government and cut back on government spen ding, for example, while imposing massive tariffs on major U.S. trading partners , including its closest allies, has disrupted business and consumer confidence a nd raised the spectre of a recession. Its willingness to explore unconventional strategies to manage U.S. debt and eag erness to push through expensive tax cuts are also risks for bond investors, as it could worsen the country’s $36 trillion debt pile and its ability to service it, analysts have said. Its strong-arm approach to foreign countries, both allies and foes, has led to a search for alternatives to U.S. assets and the dollar, foreign bankers and offi cials have said. While investors said there is no alternative in the near term due to the size of the U.S. economy, the depth of its capital markets and the strength of its inst itutions, that might change over time. "Creditor countries that previously assumed they were part of the U.S. security umbrella ... own a lot of U.S. assets," said Matt Smith, a fund manager at Briti sh investment firm Ruffer. "If they begin to unwind those exposures, or merely h edge their currency risk, there could be a marked decline in both the dollar and U.S. risk assets." He cited countries like Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Germany. Ruffer, which oversees about $24 billion, had a low exposure to U.S. risk assets – and a near-zero weight to the U.S. dollar – in reflection of both high valu ations and "regime change potential," Smith said, referring to possible changes in U.S. provision of security protections. RULE OF LAW The Trump administration’s other actions, such as its clashes with the judiciar y, could over time erode confidence in U.S. institutional strength, a key pillar of foreign demand for U.S. assets, six analysts said. A source at a major credit ratings agency, who requested anonymity to speak more candidly, said they were closely following developments that could point to an erosion of the rule of law in the country, which is relevant to how ratings agen cies assess institutional strength - a key component of their credit risk views. "There is investor concern that the administration is weakening institutional st rength," said David Page, head of macro research at AXA Investment Management, a n investment firm with nearly $1 trillion in assets under management. Page pointed to concerns that the administration was failing to comply with cour t orders and officials, including Trump, were verbally attacking judges. "A persistent change in the U.S.’ long-standing history of strong institutions would certainly risk a change in global asset allocation practice, which could h ave an impact on U.S. assets and the dollar," Page said. Mehill Marku, lead geopolitical analyst at PGIM Fixed Income, a New Jersey-headq uartered investment firm with $837 billion in assets under management, said inve stors were also watching Trump's expansive interpretation of his powers as Presi dent, a legal doctrine called the "unitary executive" theory. "I'm sure investors are going to pay a lot more attention as we go forward in th e so-called unitary presidency that clearly President Trump wants to establish, where everything goes through the White House," Marku said. "This is definitely a negative." Jeffrey Sherman, deputy chief investment officer at U.S. bond firm DoubleLine, s aid policy uncertainty could contribute to a deterioration of foreign investor s entiment that may eventually encourage a repatriation of capital. "Ultimately you get yourself into a place where people don't want to do business with you," Sherman said. "It takes a long time to build up positive sentiment, just like a relationship and trust, but you can destroy it very quickly." -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 36.226.115.172 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1744133387.A.A1B.html

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