[心得] 懂王川寶的劇本?
先參考大蕭條相關條件(GPT提供)
1929年,貼現率約6%,股市泡沫
1930~1933,貼現率約3%→1.5%,經濟下行與寬鬆政策
1934~1939,貼現率約1%,羅斯福新政廢除金本位
緊接著二戰爆發...冏
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目前條件:
美國十年期公債利率4.5%左右滾動,基準利率4.33
尚未看到經濟下行
川寶提了個「天才法案」,規範了穩定幣掛勾與監管
俄烏沒有停戰,以伊持續惡化
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結論:
1.前有橋水達利歐開示在前
2.後有以色列趁亂開砲在後
3.接下來是...?
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※ 編輯: yousking (114.137.145.68 臺灣), 06/16/2025 13:50:06
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