[標的] 2330 是時侯尋找減碼時機了
標的:2330 台積電
分類:討論
分析/正文:
今天是我四月以來第一次把台積期減碼到一倍槓桿以下
首先觀察美股9月的上漲波段,符合「融漲段」的特徵
1. 上漲的動能主要由槓桿資金推動,主動基金經理人開始減碼
2. 上漲的消息面,主要來自「兩、三年甚至更遠未來的樂觀預期」
而非財報的下一季/未來一年預期
3. 席勒本益比超額報酬顯示美股整體估值處於過熱區間
台股並不符合上述融漲段特徵,只是隨著全球風險資產的樂觀預期
2330的本益比也跟著水漲船高
今日大漲後,已逼近我判斷的今年底前fair value 1400元
是時侯尋找機會減碼了
在股價末升段時,降低曝險
一方面可以參與剩下的行情,另一方面避免突發的市場反轉吃掉加碼資金
以宴會來比喻的話,狂歡仍在持續,但有些人已默默離場
喝高的人還在臉紅耳赤的乾杯,不勝酒力的已倒在沙發上昏睡
這時該作的,就是移動到門口,冷靜看著場內的局勢
然後隨時準備奪門而出XD
--
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我只是說要減槓桿 不建議全部資金出場
如果原本槓桿水位就不高,完全可以不動
畢竟2330值得長期持有,不加槓桿的話,抱到5000元也不是問題
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保守一點抓明年70*20倍
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