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[新聞] 霍爾木茲河並未完全封鎖？分析人士調查

看板Stock (股票)作者 (洨雞)時間1小時前 (2026/04/06 23:40), 49分鐘前編輯推噓48(50推 2噓 41→)
留言93則, 64人參與, 13分鐘前最新討論串1/1
原文標題： Hormuz Not Fully Blocked? Analysts Investigate Frontline: Iran Establishes 'Navigation Management System' 原文連結： https://reurl.cc/npDR26 發布時間： 2026/4/6 10:41 記者署名： 原文內容： ①Citrini Research released a sensational report over the weekend, not only because its conclusions contradicted the current market consensus but also because the report was written after analysts conducted field investigations in the Strait of Hormuz; ②the report concluded that the Strait of Hormuz had not been completely closed, and Iran had established a "de facto navigation management system." Cailian Press reported on April 7 (edited by Xia Junxiong) that research firm Citrini Research released a sensational report over the weekend, not only because its conclusions contradicted the current market consensus but also because the report was written after analysts conducted field investigations in the Strait of Hormuz. The report concluded that the Strait of Hormuz had not been completely closed, and Iran had established a "de facto navigation management system." Following the war initiated by the United States and Israel against Iran at the end of February, Iran subsequently blocked the Strait of Hormuz as a retaliatory measure. The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation. Citrini Research stated that the market currently tends to describe the situation in the Strait of Hormuz using extreme terms: it is either on the verge of being blockaded or fully open and secure. To clarify the situation, Citrini Research dispatched "Analyst No. 3" (internal codename "Agent 3") to the Strait of Hormuz with a straightforward mission: observe what was actually happening. According to Citrini Research, this analyst is proficient in four languages, including Arabic, and carried a Pelican case filled with recording equipment, a pack of Cuban cigars, a box of Zyn nicotine pouches, and approximately $15,000 in cash, proceeding with an itinerary planned days earlier in Manhattan. Note: Citrini Research is headquartered in New York. On the water, conflict and trade are unfolding simultaneously. Citrini Research pointed out that although the United States maintains a military posture aimed at containing Iran's escalation of tensions, many of its allies have adopted a more discreet approach. Countries such as Japan, France, and Greece are negotiating directly or indirectly with Iran to ensure their tankers can continue sailing. This has resulted in a situation where shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has not collapsed but operates in a controlled and selective manner. The report states that Iran has established a de facto navigation management system between Qeshm and Larak islands. Specifically, vessels wishing to pass through must submit detailed information via intermediaries, including ownership, cargo, and crew details, and pay transit fees. Approved vessels will receive an authorization code, and in many cases, an escort; non-compliant vessels will be required to wait. Citrini Research stated that Iran’s aim is not to close the strait but to assert sovereignty. This model mimics Turkey's long-standing management of the Bosporus Strait: regulation, fee collection, and maintaining trade flow. Iranian officials publicly announced at the end of March that Iran plans to establish a new strait management system, modeled after Turkey’s management of the Bosporus Strait and Egypt’s control of the Suez Canal. Vessels passing through the strait would be required to obtain permission from Iran and pay corresponding transit and service fees. For Iran, this brings both revenue and increased leverage while allowing the country to position itself as a 'responsible manager' of global trade rather than a 'reckless disruptor.' For most countries worldwide, this represents an uneasy but workable compromise. A complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz would lead to catastrophic economic consequences, with oil inventories being depleted at a rate that the global system cannot sustain. Citrini Research pointed out that this is precisely why most energy-importing nations have chosen negotiation over confrontation. Shipping patterns have already begun to adjust, with fewer very large crude carriers and more small vessels and liquefied gas carriers. This reality holds significant implications for the market. Even without a full blockade, freight rates may remain elevated, and energy insecurity will persist. However, this chaotic yet multipolar reality is still preferable to another extreme scenario. The strait is not closed; it is being reshaped in a low-profile yet continuous manner, gradually exerting control over each vessel. Notably, Citrini Research also released a market-shaking report in February this year, which depicted a scenario where AI could severely impact the global economy, further intensifying market anxiety already gripped by fears over AI. 心得/評論： 我簡單抓取重點 並結合其他訊息後 整理如下 1.紐約知名研究機構Citrini Research的「3號分析師」，親自跑去何木茲海峽數船 2.原始資料來源是Citrini Research機構所發布的調查報告 名為《Strait of Hormuz:A Citrini Field Trip》 不過該份完整的實地考察報告屬於他們機構內部的付費訂閱內容 外部媒體目前大多是引述其公開的摘要精華 3.由於該海域的訊號干擾與欺騙嚴重 市場常用的公開 AIS和衛星圖出現了巨大的盲區 漏報了將近50%的真實通行流量 (想來是因為都是幽靈船) 4.他不顧阿曼邊境特工的勸阻與海岸警衛隊的警告 在港口用一疊現金臨時雇了一名素未謀面的船長 搭乘一艘沒有GPS導航的破舊快艇出海 5.到了距離伊朗海岸僅18英里的公海後 當時頭頂上有「見證者」無人機盤旋 遠處還有伊朗革命衛隊的巡邏艇在巡航 6.他甚至還愜意地跳入海峽中 嘴裡叼著古巴雪茄游泳 不過隨後他便被當地的海岸警衛隊攔截並短暫拘留 手機也遭到沒收 7.他與阿曼軍方簽訂了保密協議 不得拍攝、不得紀錄、不得刺探、不得撰寫報導 但他畢竟還是發了這份報告 此舉可能讓他日後有被報復的危險 8.3號分析師的結論是： a.荷姆茲海峽並不是簡單的「非開即關」 而是處於一種「動態執法」的狀態 方式比較類似於隨機抽查 伊朗方並未能夠有足夠能力完全實時攔船、檢查、收費 但伊朗革命衛隊依然在現場主導了「誰能通過」的新規矩 b.市場上的油價反應，包含布蘭特原油以及各類現貨價等 皆依靠AIS的情況去作價格推估 這嚴重失真 9.這位三號分析師 自此被封為「金融界詹姆士龐德」 華爾街的分析師這麼卷啊......也太猛...... -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 218.166.9.65 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1775490008.A.CDE.html
推
04/06 23:41, 1小時前 , 1F
想想你要怎樣的分析師
04/06 23:41, 1F
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04/06 23:41, 1小時前 , 2F
恩 現貨買布蘭特141的該來參考一下
04/06 23:41, 2F
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04/06 23:41, 1小時前 , 3F
這個船長也是人才-.-
04/06 23:41, 3F
貧困地區多的是要錢不要命的死士
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04/06 23:42, 1小時前 , 4F
就大家都用幽靈船把貨運出去-.- 一起發大財
04/06 23:42, 4F
推
04/06 23:42, 1小時前 , 5F
重點是保險 哪怕是什麼動態執法
04/06 23:42, 5F
※ 編輯: ShaoJi (218.166.9.65 臺灣), 04/06/2026 23:43:48
推
04/06 23:43, 1小時前 , 6F
分析師這麼卷哦，還要去戰亂地區實地探險
04/06 23:43, 6F
推
04/06 23:43, 1小時前 , 7F
笑死，好萊塢電影又有新題材了
04/06 23:43, 7F
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04/06 23:43, 1小時前 , 8F
謝謝
04/06 23:43, 8F
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04/06 23:44, 1小時前 , 9F
好拚 但所以有多少船還在裡面
04/06 23:44, 9F
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04/06 23:44, 1小時前 , 10F
不過有不少船是用幽靈船出去很早就有報導了
04/06 23:44, 10F
推
04/06 23:44, 1小時前 , 11F
幽靈船撞船誰要賠？
04/06 23:44, 11F
推
04/06 23:44, 1小時前 , 12F
沒幾個願意這樣玩命好嗎= =
04/06 23:44, 12F
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04/06 23:44, 1小時前 , 13F
幽靈船是只求出去啦 沒有保險不會再進來
04/06 23:44, 13F
推
04/06 23:45, 1小時前 , 14F
穩了
04/06 23:45, 14F
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04/06 23:45, 1小時前 , 15F
影子船隊再偷運嗎
04/06 23:45, 15F
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04/06 23:45, 1小時前 , 16F
所以對事態不會有太大的幫助
04/06 23:45, 16F
推
04/06 23:45, 1小時前 , 17F
所以實際上是阿曼和伊朗聯合封鎖海峽
04/06 23:45, 17F
推
04/06 23:45, 1小時前 , 18F
靠阿曼那側水太淺，滿載的油輪、LNG船沒辦法走。
04/06 23:45, 18F
推
04/06 23:45, 1小時前 , 19F
油輪敢賭嗎？
04/06 23:45, 19F
推
04/06 23:46, 1小時前 , 20F
沒保險賭屁...
04/06 23:46, 20F
推
04/06 23:46, 1小時前 , 21F
這還用得著分析 日本都通過了阿
04/06 23:46, 21F
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04/06 23:49, 1小時前 , 22F
這其實很正常 真正做交易的人想要第一手資料都會搞
04/06 23:49, 22F
推
04/06 23:49, 1小時前 , 23F
用命寫報導喔
04/06 23:49, 23F
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04/06 23:49, 1小時前 , 24F
一些花招去獲取情報 等別人的情報都是落後資訊了
04/06 23:49, 24F
推
04/06 23:50, 1小時前 , 25F
難怪油漲不上去啊啊啊！！
04/06 23:50, 25F
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04/06 23:50, 1小時前 , 26F
以前聽過的例子是用無人機去看廠家的大宗物資有多少
04/06 23:50, 26F
推
04/06 23:50, 1小時前 , 27F
Citrini一直都很猛啊
04/06 23:50, 27F
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04/06 23:50, 1小時前 , 28F
後來被廠家發現就都蓋住不給看
04/06 23:50, 28F
推
04/06 23:50, 1小時前 , 29F
親自去現場數船也太硬核 笑死
04/06 23:50, 29F
推
04/06 23:52, 1小時前 , 30F
我就是想要這種分析師
04/06 23:52, 30F
推
04/06 23:53, 1小時前 , 31F
我ok 你先過
04/06 23:53, 31F
推
04/06 23:53, 1小時前 , 32F
這種分析師也猛了
04/06 23:53, 32F
推
04/06 23:54, 1小時前 , 33F
分析師真卷
04/06 23:54, 33F
推
04/06 23:55, 1小時前 , 34F
AI 文喔
04/06 23:55, 34F
推
04/06 23:56, 1小時前 , 35F
這家績效好得很誇張
04/06 23:56, 35F
推
04/06 23:57, 1小時前 , 36F
#我在戰爭的時候游泳
04/06 23:57, 36F
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04/06 23:58, 1小時前 , 37F
證交法老師舉例是 在工廠數車
04/06 23:58, 37F
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04/06 23:58, 1小時前 , 38F
看來以後可以舉新案例
04/06 23:58, 38F
推
04/06 23:59, 1小時前 , 39F
在美國當分析師還要兼戰地記者喔 笑死
04/06 23:59, 39F
推
04/07 00:00, 1小時前 , 40F
只是這種就賭啊 被抓就火球一個囉
04/07 00:00, 40F
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04/07 00:00, 1小時前 , 41F
AI文
04/07 00:00, 41F
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04/07 00:03, 1小時前 , 42F
還是賭啊，出事完全沒得理賠
04/07 00:03, 42F
推
04/07 00:04, 1小時前 , 43F
龍哥 哲哲 嘉偉 學著點
04/07 00:04, 43F
推
04/07 00:04, 1小時前 , 44F
快艇vs油輪等於懶覺vs雞腿 伊朗看到還懶得攻擊
04/07 00:04, 44F
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04/07 00:05, 1小時前 , 45F
有種開美國軍艦過去看看會不會被打爆
04/07 00:05, 45F
推
04/07 00:07, 1小時前 , 46F
伊朗封鎖資源有限 但大型船隻還是得伊朗點頭才行
04/07 00:07, 46F
推
04/07 00:09, 1小時前 , 47F
這太猛了吧笑死
04/07 00:09, 47F
推
04/07 00:12, 1小時前 , 48F
這樣跟封鎖有什麼兩樣，你一條爛命想賭就去賭，一
04/07 00:12, 48F
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04/07 00:12, 1小時前 , 49F
艘貨櫃船加貨物至少值幾億鎂誰敢賭
04/07 00:12, 49F
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04/07 00:13, 1小時前 , 50F
快艇誰鳥你 無人機看到都懶得理 油輪目標很大很好發
04/07 00:13, 50F
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04/07 00:13, 1小時前 , 51F
現啊
04/07 00:13, 51F
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04/07 00:14, 1小時前 , 52F
要不要賭漁船還可以捕魚啊www 油輪和天然氣船都要特
04/07 00:14, 52F
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04/07 00:14, 1小時前 , 53F
種船運呢
04/07 00:14, 53F
推
04/07 00:14, 1小時前 , 54F
就是賭啊的，但哪艘油輪敢賭？
04/07 00:14, 54F
推
04/07 00:14, 1小時前 , 55F
這哪部電影? XDDD
04/07 00:14, 55F
噓
04/07 00:14, 1小時前 , 56F
…垃圾文不要來亂…
04/07 00:14, 56F
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04/07 00:14, 1小時前 , 57F
這是ai文? 要怎麼看出來? 英文也能看出是AI文，未免
04/07 00:14, 57F
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04/07 00:14, 1小時前 , 58F
太厲害
04/07 00:14, 58F
推
04/07 00:14, 1小時前 , 59F
實地勘驗
04/07 00:14, 59F
噓
04/07 00:15, 1小時前 , 60F
重點就是沒有人會冒險好嗎
04/07 00:15, 60F
推
04/07 00:16, 1小時前 , 61F
你再說一次，哪條河？
04/07 00:16, 61F
推
04/07 00:16, 1小時前 , 62F
伊朗已經放話 如果戰事升級 曼德海峽也會封鎖
04/07 00:16, 62F
推
04/07 00:17, 1小時前 , 63F
難怪油一直跌啊啊啊
04/07 00:17, 63F
推
04/07 00:17, 1小時前 , 64F
流量是沒封鎖的不到一成，但漏報50%
04/07 00:17, 64F
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04/07 00:17, 1小時前 , 65F
乘起了也跟封鎖差不多
04/07 00:17, 65F
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04/07 00:18, 1小時前 , 66F
吃水深的油輪能過再說吧 一台小艇能證明什麼？
04/07 00:18, 66F
文盲真多 ※ 編輯: ShaoJi (218.166.9.65 臺灣), 04/07/2026 00:19:03
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04/07 00:23, 58分鐘前 , 67F
很多人趁著炒作油價發財阿 伊朗自己也賺很多
04/07 00:23, 67F
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04/07 00:24, 57分鐘前 , 68F
華西街003
04/07 00:24, 68F
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04/07 00:24, 57分鐘前 , 69F
標題應該是海峽吧
04/07 00:24, 69F
標題我是直接按網頁翻譯後貼上的0.0 ※ 編輯: ShaoJi (218.166.9.65 臺灣), 04/07/2026 00:26:06
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04/07 00:27, 54分鐘前 , 70F
偷跑這麼多的話早就成了話題了還用得著去實地看嗎？
04/07 00:27, 70F
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04/07 00:27, 54分鐘前 , 71F
而且他也嘗試一次而已就可以下決定了？
04/07 00:27, 71F
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04/07 00:29, 52分鐘前 , 72F
等等 這網站有寫是機翻來自cls.cn的報導…所以原報
04/07 00:29, 72F
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04/07 00:29, 52分鐘前 , 73F
導是中文的 然後它翻成英文 你又翻成中文= =
04/07 00:29, 73F
我沒看cls.cn的中文頁面 我是這個網址的英文文章我就直接讀了XDD ※ 編輯: ShaoJi (218.166.9.65 臺灣), 04/07/2026 00:32:23
推
04/07 00:32, 49分鐘前 , 74F
真猛
04/07 00:32, 74F
推
04/07 00:32, 49分鐘前 , 75F
好猛喔
04/07 00:32, 75F
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04/07 00:32, 49分鐘前 , 76F
原連結的右上角有個地球按下去 這篇是中文報導...
04/07 00:32, 76F
推
04/07 00:32, 49分鐘前 , 77F
你想要什麼樣的分析師，學著點。
04/07 00:32, 77F
推
04/07 00:38, 43分鐘前 , 78F
想想看你要怎樣的分析師！
04/07 00:38, 78F
推
04/07 00:40, 41分鐘前 , 79F
一切的一切！我的親身到現場去查核！別的分析都靠感
04/07 00:40, 79F
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04/07 00:40, 41分鐘前 , 80F
覺！只有我！鏡頭給我！只有我是親自調查！
04/07 00:40, 80F
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04/07 00:41, 40分鐘前 , 81F
各位朋友們好好想想，要選就要選最厲害的分析師！
04/07 00:41, 81F
推
04/07 00:46, 35分鐘前 , 82F
廢話 不就說了 付錢就可以過啊
04/07 00:46, 82F
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04/07 00:46, 35分鐘前 , 83F
還有尊爵不凡軍隊開道
04/07 00:46, 83F
推
04/07 00:47, 34分鐘前 , 84F
影子船隊的事上個月就聊過了
04/07 00:47, 84F
推
04/07 00:49, 32分鐘前 , 85F
又不用完全封鎖，有被炸的風險就夠了
04/07 00:49, 85F
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04/07 00:52, 29分鐘前 , 86F
多了一倍 其實不少 從5艘船變成10艘船
04/07 00:52, 86F
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04/07 00:52, 29分鐘前 , 87F
但實物缺口的部分還是在那 因為最多也就這樣
04/07 00:52, 87F
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04/07 00:55, 26分鐘前 , 88F
給個數據參考 戰前每天通過的船數是至少破百 差距就
04/07 00:55, 88F
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04/07 00:55, 26分鐘前 , 89F
麼大
04/07 00:55, 89F
推
04/07 00:56, 25分鐘前 , 90F
數咖啡已經落伍了 現在流行數船
04/07 00:56, 90F
推
04/07 01:05, 16分鐘前 , 91F
龐德不是退休換成印度裔 辛.邦德
04/07 01:05, 91F
推
04/07 01:08, 13分鐘前 , 92F
講難聽一點 開戰那天伊朗亂成一團就該趕快走了
04/07 01:08, 92F
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04/07 01:08, 13分鐘前 , 93F
那些趁早跑掉的船現在應該都暗爽
04/07 01:08, 93F
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