Re: [新聞] 美國9月升息添懸念？一半專家賭不會升已刪文

看板Stock (股票)作者shihchinlun (stone)時間11年前 (2015/07/30 15:34)推噓3(4推 1噓 4→)

留言9則, 6人參與討論串2/2 (看更多)

LMCI Core_PCE 2007-01-01 5.6 2.4 2007-02-01 4.0 2.4 2007-03-01 4.2 2.3 2007-04-01 0.3 2.1 2007-05-01 -1.1 2.0 2007-06-01 -3.9 1.9 2007-07-01 -5.9 2.0 2007-08-01 -6.6 1.9 2007-09-01 -4.7 2.0 2007-10-01 -2.8 2.1 2007-11-01 -2.4 2.3 2007-12-01 -4.4 2.3 2008-01-01 -6.5 2.1 2008-02-01 -9.8 2.0 2008-03-01 -11.9 2.2 2008-04-01 -13.2 2.2 2008-05-01 -15.0 2.3 2008-06-01 -12.8 2.3 2008-07-01 -14.1 2.3 2008-08-01 -16.6 2.3 2008-09-01 -22.2 2.1 2008-10-01 -31.4 1.8 2008-11-01 -38.2 1.7 2008-12-01 -38.7 1.4 2009-01-01 -38.4 1.2 2009-02-01 -35.8 1.2 2009-03-01 -30.6 1.1 2009-04-01 -20.4 1.2 2009-05-01 -8.8 1.2 2009-06-01 -2.8 1.1 2009-07-01 0.5 1.0 2009-08-01 0.8 1.0 2009-09-01 0.5 1.0 2009-10-01 1.5 1.3 2009-11-01 6.2 1.4 2009-12-01 7.1 1.5 2010-01-01 9.2 1.6 2010-02-01 7.9 1.5 2010-03-01 10.0 1.6 2010-04-01 10.2 1.3 2010-05-01 8.1 1.3 2010-06-01 4.8 1.3 2010-07-01 2.3 1.4 2010-08-01 1.0 1.3 2010-09-01 2.4 1.2 2010-10-01 4.8 1.0 2010-11-01 4.3 1.0 2010-12-01 7.6 0.9 2011-01-01 8.0 1.0 2011-02-01 10.3 1.1 2011-03-01 9.3 1.1 2011-04-01 5.9 1.3 2011-05-01 2.0 1.4 2011-06-01 0.8 1.5 2011-07-01 0.6 1.6 2011-08-01 0.7 1.7 2011-09-01 4.0 1.7 2011-10-01 7.5 1.8 2011-11-01 10.1 1.8 2011-12-01 11.3 2.0 2012-01-01 11.6 2.1 2012-02-01 8.9 2.0 2012-03-01 5.1 2.1 2012-04-01 1.0 2.0 2012-05-01 -1.5 1.9 2012-06-01 -2.3 1.9 2012-07-01 0.5 1.8 2012-08-01 3.2 1.6 2012-09-01 4.0 1.7 2012-10-01 5.6 1.7 2012-11-01 4.5 1.6 2012-12-01 3.9 1.6 2013-01-01 4.5 1.5 2013-02-01 6.6 1.5 2013-03-01 4.2 1.4 2013-04-01 2.7 1.3 2013-05-01 2.6 1.3 2013-06-01 2.3 1.3 2013-07-01 3.2 1.3 2013-08-01 3.6 1.3 2013-09-01 3.5 1.3 2013-10-01 4.2 1.3 2013-11-01 7.0 1.3 2013-12-01 4.1 1.3 2014-01-01 2.8 1.2 2014-02-01 3.1 1.2 2014-03-01 6.0 1.3 2014-04-01 8.1 1.4 2014-05-01 7.0 1.5 2014-06-01 5.7 1.5 2014-07-01 3.4 1.5 2014-08-01 3.0 1.5 2014-09-01 4.9 1.5 2014-10-01 6.1 1.5 2014-11-01 7.1 1.4 2014-12-01 7.2 1.3 2015-01-01 3.5 1.3 2015-02-01 1.4 1.3 2015-03-01 -1.3 1.4 2015-04-01 -1.2 1.3 2015-05-01 0.9 1.2 2015-06-01 0.8 LMCI=Labor Market Conditions Index 以下是FED對LMCI的解釋 The U.S. labor market is large and multifaceted. Often-cited indicators, such as the unemployment rate or payroll employment, measure a particular dimension of labor market activity, and it is not uncommon for different indicators to send conflicting signals about labor market conditions. Accordingly, analysts typically look at many indicators when attempting to gauge labor market improvement. However, it is often difficult to know how to weigh signals from various indicators. Statistical models can be useful to such efforts because they provide a way to summarize information from several indicators. This Note describes a dynamic factor model of labor market indicators that we have developed recently, which we call the labor market conditions index (LMCI). Details of the data, model, and estimation will be presented in a forthcoming FEDS working paper. 總之這是一個綜合不同勞動市場狀況的指數，總共19個參數，包含大家熟悉的失業率，勞動參與率，工作時數，平均時薪…有興趣深入了解的請參考 goo.gl/L3kelQ Core PCE =Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) 是除了CPI外另一種通膨的數據(本魯之前有稍微介紹過) 基本上，升息主要看兩個地方: 通膨(inflation)＆勞工市場(labor market) （我們最熟悉的失業率，只是勞工市場其中一個indicator，就像CPI也只是通膨的indicator之一）觀察上面的數字，本來覺得美國第一季受到天氣和油價大跌的，數據不佳只是一個短暫的影響，第二季油價回穩及其他因素消失應能重回增長；但看到現在，LMCI連續兩個月呈負值(上次出現負值是2012年)，56月不到1的數字也相當低，核心PCE沒有上升跡象不是葉倫要不要升息，是現在的數字足不足以支撐升息的決定更何況對聯準會來說，太早升息的風險絕對比太晚升息的風險大除非未來三個月的數字表現得非常漂亮，不然看不出九月要怎麼升息繼續維持原先看法，升息時間點落在12月或更晚 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 117.19.211.203 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1438241651.A.472.html