[新聞] 中國通縮陰霾揮之不去 1月PPI連28個月下跌
原文標題:中國通縮陰霾揮之不去 1月PPI連28個月下跌
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發布時間:2025/02/09 18:17
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記者署名:盧永山
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原文內容:
根據《彭博》、《路透》報導,中國國家統計局表示,受到農曆春節民眾擴大支出影響,
1月消費者物價指數(CPI)年增0.5%,為5個月以來最大增幅,但1月生產者物價指數 (
PPI)年減2.3%,跌幅大於市場預估的2.1%,且為連續28個月下跌,顯示該國通縮壓力仍
大。
中國1月28日至2月4日長達8天的春節假期,掩蓋了該國面臨的通縮挑戰。瓦爾瑪(Sonal
Varma)和杜思英等野村證券分析師估計,中國1月CPI已被扭曲0.4個百分點,因消費者在
春節假期期間增加購買,導致一些商品價格上揚。
今年中國的通縮壓力可能持續,除非北京當局重振疲弱的國內需求,隨著美國總統川普對
中國所有進口商品加徵10%關稅,北京當局刺激成長的壓力上升。
經濟學人智庫(EIU)高級經濟學徐天辰表示,儘管中國CPI預期將逐步上升,PPI在短期
內不可能回到成長,因工業產品產能過剩的問題未解,若以GDP平減指數計算,中國可能
需要幾季時間才能脫離通縮。
澳盛銀行分析師估計,儘管中國民眾在春節假期期間蜂擁去看電影,花錢購物、聚餐和國
內旅遊,但人均支出僅較去年同期增加1.2%。
中國國家統計局表示,中國1月CPI月增0.7%,低於市場預估的0. 8%,與去年12月持平。
至於2024年全年,中國CPI年增0.2%,與2023年相同,但遠低於官方設定的3%目標,代表
中國CPI已連續13年未達官方目標。
中國持續的通縮壓力與主要經濟體呈明顯對比。對北京當局而言,最大的隱憂在於,通縮
壓力若持續下去,將使家庭更長的時間抑制支出,進而傷害企業收入,導致企業縮減投資
,最後進一步減薪和裁員,形成惡性循環。
心得/評論:
陷入通縮泥沼
果然沒那麼容易爬出來阿.....
中國的CPI/PPI都低於預期
人口紅利又即將用完
要步日本後塵,陷入失落N年了嗎?
※必需填寫滿30正體中文字,無意義者板規處分
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