[標的] 2316楠梓電 多
標的：2316楠梓電
分類：多
分析/正文：
心血來潮來回個
https://imgur.com/I8czCYG
看那個能賺錢嗎？
好問題，最近聽到一段話蠻有意思的：
簡單的想法，反而很多人不相信，人們雖然大多不是專家，卻又喜歡那種聽起來有點懂又有點不懂的事情，因為人們常常想：「如果投資那麼簡單的話，那誰虧錢？」
那就看看用這些「簡單」方法賺錢的巴菲特做過的投資
（英文內容，後文有放中文翻譯）
內容取自：
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/tom-spain-828b2417_warrenbufett-berkshirehathaway-investing-activity-7335650207516270592-EkEJ
Warren Buffett's Hidden Fortune: Sanborn Map Company
Sanborn Map Company (1960): A Hidden Fortune. . .
In 1960, Warren Buffett—barely 30 years old and running his Buffett Partnership from a modest office in Omaha—made one of the most iconic investments of his early career: the Sanborn Map Company.
What Was Sanborn Map Company?
Sanborn’s primary business was the production of detailed fire insurance maps—highly specialized documents that allowed insurers to assess the risk of fire damage in towns and cities across the United States.
Founded in the 1800s, Sanborn had become the undisputed leader in this niche by the early 20th century. At its peak, over 85% of the fire insurance market relied on Sanborn maps. Its proprietary fieldwork and standardized formats gave it a virtual monopoly. For decades, it was a cash-generating machine.
But by the late 1950s, the tide had turned. Insurers were starting to use their own risk data. New technologies and internal mapping methods began to erode Sanborn’s position. Revenues stagnated. The operating business was in slow but steady decline.
To outside investors, Sanborn looked like a company past its prime, with little growth and an uncertain future. As a result, the stock languished, ignored and unloved.
The Hidden Portfolio
What caught Buffett’s attention wasn’t the map business. It was what Sanborn had done with its retained earnings over the years.
Like many older industrial firms of the time, Sanborn had quietly accumulated a large portfolio of investments—blue-chip stocks and government bonds—managed internally by the board. This investment portfolio had ballooned to substantial size, relative to the market cap of the company.
Buffett’s analysis was simple, but powerful:
- The value of Sanborn’s investment portfolio was roughly $65 per share.
- The stock was trading at $45 per share.
This meant the market was assigning a negative value of $20 per share to the operating business.
Put another way, investors were paying $45 to get $65 worth of easily valued, marketable securities—and getting the map business thrown in for free. In fact, they were being paid to take it.
翻譯：
Sanborn 地圖公司（1960）：隱藏的財富
1960 年，年僅 30 歲、在奧馬哈一間簡陋辦公室經營「巴菲特合夥公司」的沃倫・巴菲特，做出了他早期投資生涯中最具代表性的投資之一：Sanborn 地圖公司。
什麼是 Sanborn 地圖公司？
Sanborn 的主要業務是製作詳細的火災保險地圖——這種高度專業化的文件能讓保險公司評估全美各城鎮與城市的火災損失風險。
公司成立於 19 世紀，到 20 世紀初期已成為這個利基市場無可爭議的領導者。在巔峰時期，超過 85% 的火災保險市場依賴 Sanborn 的地圖。其專有的實地調查與標準化格式賦予它近乎壟斷的地位。數十年來，它都是一台現金製造機。
然而，到 1950 年代末，情況逆轉。保險公司開始使用自有的風險數據，新技術與內部製圖方法逐漸侵蝕 Sanborn 的地位。營收停滯，營運業務緩慢但穩定地衰退。
對外部投資人來說，Sanborn 看起來是一家已過巔峰、缺乏成長且前景不明的公司。結果，股票長期被冷落、乏人問津。
隱藏的投資組合
吸引巴菲特的並不是地圖業務，而是 Sanborn 多年來如何處理其保留盈餘。
就像當時許多歷史悠久的工業企業一樣，Sanborn 悄悄累積了一個龐大的投資組合——藍籌股與政府債券，由董事會自行管理。這個投資組合相對於公司市值已膨脹到相當可觀的規模。
巴菲特的分析簡單卻有力：
Sanborn 的投資組合價值約為每股 65 美元。
股票卻只以每股 45 美元交易。
這意味著市場給營運業務賦予的價值是每股負 20 美元。
換句話說，投資人用 45 美元買到 65 美元的易於估值、可變現的證券，還附送整個地圖業務。事實上，他們等於還被付錢去接手它。
上面這篇讀過後，看楠梓電肯定有種熟悉感
回到楠梓電，如果你把楠梓電的轉投資滬電股份視為本業，那麼他就是一間獲利 YoY 40%以上，本益比13倍的公司，這樣貴嗎？我是覺得很便宜
https://imgur.com/AmdM4df
那如果你換個角度，認為滬電股份應該要視為業外
那就可以套用到上面提到的例子
楠梓電持有的是滬電股份股票，每股70.9人民幣，相當於每股305.575元，楠梓電流通在外股數1.82億股，持有滬電股份股票2.1億股，相當於每股楠梓電持有滬電股份1.15股
楠梓電的投資組合價值約為每股362元，每股總負債30元
股票卻只以每股99元交易
巴菲特跟李祿等投資人都做過這樣的投資，既然台灣的資本市場還有這類型投資機會，價值價格之間的差距230%，甚至比巴菲特那時投資的50%還要大非常多，如果抱著「如果投資那麼簡單的話，那誰虧錢？」的想法的話，那這種地上沒人撿的鈔票，就留給價值投資的人撿吧。
進退場機制：
221以上隨意出，不停損
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一個是不動產一個是證券，兩者差距有點大
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※ 編輯: MrChen (114.48.199.164 日本), 09/13/2025 18:14:32
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