[新聞] 甲骨文違約風險 16年高點

看板Stock (股票)作者f12sd2e2aa (XS)時間2小時前 (2025/12/11 06:40)推噓0(2推 2噓 2→)

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甲骨文違約風險 16年高點 https://money.udn.com/money/story/123398/9195561 2025/12/11 01:38:31 經濟日報編譯林文彬／綜合外電被視為人工智慧（AI）題材領先指標的甲骨文（Oracle）公司近來情勢急轉直下，不只股價過去三個月大跌逾三成，為該公司債券買保險的信用違約交換（CDS）利差也持續快速擴大，攀上16年高點，令外界對大型科技公司以債務為燃料的AI支出熱潮更加憂心。隨著資本支出高昂和一些協議形成循環引發許多質疑，甲骨文股價已從9月10日寫下的歷史高點大跌33%。FactSet數據顯示，這家商業軟體和資料庫大廠的股票空單餘額，已從5月底1 ,570萬股增至目前的2,440萬股。另據彭博資訊數據，甲骨文5年期CDS利差12月5日收在128個基點，是2009年3月金融危機高峰期以來最高水準。摩根士丹利分析師泰勒（Lindsay Tyler）預測，基於甲骨文未來融資計畫及能否仰賴OpenAI兌現承諾營收，仍充滿不確定性，該公司5年期CDS利差短期可能觸及 150個基點。分析師表示，甲骨文試探這波債務驅動支出熱潮極限的方式，比其他大型科技公司都來得激進，宛如AI礦坑的金絲雀，是評估AI投資熱潮是否健康指標。天利投資固定收益研究分析師利德爾（Nathan Liddle）指出，甲骨文現金流遠比同業薄弱，債務水準較高，信用評等則較低。標普全球評級給予甲骨文BBB評等，Alphabet和Meta都是AA。心得剛剛財報公布甲骨文跳水10% 債務比預期高營收比預期低 ORCL posted mixed Nov-Q results, with revenue rising 14% to $16.1B, slightly mis sing the 15% forecast, while non-GAAP EPS of $2.26 significantly beat consensus of $1.64 from $2.7B Ampere gain. Operating margins compressed to 29% from 30% de spite revenue growth due to infrastructure mix. We believe rising debt (exceeded $108B gross), negative FCF (-$13.2B LTM), high OpenAI concentration risk, and m argin compression create increasing investment risks. Remaining performance obli gations surged to $523B (+438%), slightly above our view, but remain highly conc entrated to OpenAI's +$300B commitment. Cloud revenue rose 34% to $8.0B, led by Infrastructure as a Service at $4.1B (+68%), while multicloud database emerged a s the fastest-growing segment at +817% from low levels. We expect ORCL to remain FCF negative through at least FY 27 as capex of $35.5B outpaces operating cash flow. In our view, although growth potential is enticing, investors should be lo oking for cleaner AI stories given financial concerns. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.163.169.209 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1765406406.A.041.html