[新聞] 傳統消費性記憶體涼了?陸行之曝慘況:1年內恐不再有上升週期
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原文標題:
傳統消費性記憶體涼了?陸行之曝慘況:1年內恐不再有上升週期
原文連結:
https://reurl.cc/rv9vLr
發布時間:
2024/09/04 15:28
記者署名:
東森財經
原文內容:
AI熱潮帶動高頻寬記憶體(HBM)的需求,各記憶體大廠投入生產HBM,減產傳統消費性記
憶體(DRAM/NAND Flash),市場預計有望帶動傳統消費性記憶體報價上漲,但根據知名
半導體分析師陸行之觀察,這個曾被視為週期型產業的存在,如今隨著營收虧損、庫存爆
量,產業似乎不再有上升週期。
陸行之在個人臉書粉絲專頁「陸行之 Andrew Lu on global semis and techs」表示,最
近發現除了能做HBM的記憶體廠商SK海力士(SK Hynix)、美光(Micron)、三星(Samsu
ng)獲利率出現明顯回升之外,其他製造PC/消費性電子產品記憶體存儲器公司近期營收
不如預期,很多都虧損或是接近虧損。
他指出,這些記憶體存儲器廠商塞庫存給下游模組廠,讓台灣記憶體模組產業今年Q2平均
庫存爆表,高達7~8個月,更出現很多公司的庫存高達9~11個月,陸行之認為,一旦傳統
DRAM/Flash價格反轉,認列庫存損失將成為常態。
陸行之總結,從記憶體存儲器廠商塞庫爆量來看,概念就是除了製造HBM的廠商外,製造
傳統消費性記憶體的廠商迄今仍沒有看到上升週期,他更直言:「還是12個月內不再有上
升週期了。」
心得/評論:
1)營收虧損、庫存爆量,產業似乎不再有上升週期。
2)能做HBM的獲利明顯回升,傳統的等著虧損
3)說好的排擠產線雨露均霑呢?
4)老陸這咖有沒有參考價值
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