Re: [情報] 美聯儲降息兩碼
※ 引述《afflic (afflic)》之銘言:
: 美股收盤了
: 四大指數收盤全部下跌
: 有趣的是TLT也下跌,十年債殖利率上漲
: 問題來了
: 如果市場覺得經濟衰退
: 那未來應該有更大的降息空間,債券應該上漲啊
: 如果市場覺得軟著陸
: 那代表經濟沒那麼差,股票應該上漲啊
: 結果今天收盤,股債雙殺
: 大家覺得到底是經濟衰退派押對了,還是軟著陸派壓對了?
: 這兩派總不可能同時成立吧??
降二碼而20年債殖利率上升
反映的是市場認為嚴重衰退機率增加
20年債有所謂的期限溢價,也就是風險補償
主要來自三個層面:
1. 利率及通膨風險
2. 信用風險
3. 市場供需
本來應該隨著一起降的殖利率,現在反而增加
表示市場開始提高持有長債的信用 - 也就是違約風險,要有更高的報酬才願意持有長債
這在2008年次貸風暴的降息過程中也曾經發生過
但並不代表這次嚴重衰退一定會發生
只是在債市專業機構經濟專家的經濟模型裡,嚴重衰退機率增加了
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