[新聞] 鮑爾:利率將會長期位於高點

看板Stock (股票)作者 (My broken dreams)時間1月前 (2025/05/15 21:07), 編輯推噓206(23731151)
留言419則, 304人參與, 1月前最新討論串1/3 (看更多)
原文標題:Fed’s Powell cautions about higher long-term rates as ‘supply shocks’ provide policy challenges 原文連結:https://reurl.cc/lzMar9 發布時間:2025-5-15 記者署名:Jeff Cox 原文內容: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that longer-term interest rates are likely to be higher as the economy changes and policy is in flux. In remarks that focused on the central bank’s policy framework review, last done in the summer of 2020, Powell noted that conditions have changed significantly over the past five years. During the period, the Fed witnessed a period of surging inflation, pushing it to historically aggressive interest rate hikes. Powell said that even with longer-term inflation expectations largely in line with the Fed’s 2% target, the era of near-zero rates is not likely to return anytime soon. “Higher real rates may also reflect the possibility that inflation could be more volatile going forward than in the inter-crisis period of the 2010s,” Powell said in prepared remarks for the Thomas Laubach Research Conference in Washington, D.C. “We may be entering a period of more frequent, and potentially more persistent, supply shocks — a difficult challenge for the economy and for central banks.” The Fed held its benchmark borrowing rate near zero for seven years following the financial crisis in 2008. Since December 2024, the overnight lending rate has been in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, most recently trading at 4.33%. The “supply shocks” remarks are similar to those Powell has delivered over the past several weeks cautioning that policy changes could put the Fed in a difficult balancing act between supporting employment and controlling inflation. Though he did not mention President Donald Trump’s tariffs in his Thursday remarks, the central bank chief in recent days has noted the likelihood that tariffs will slow growth and boost inflation. However, the extent of either impact is difficult to gauge, particularly as Trump recently has backed off the more aggressive duties pending a 90-day negotiating window. Nevertheless, the Fed has been reluctant to ease policy after cutting its benchmark rate by a full percentage point last year. 聯準會主席鮑爾表示,隨著經濟與政策環境改變,長期利率可能維持在較高水準。他指出 ,未來供給衝擊可能更頻繁且持久,使通膨更不穩定,這將對央行構成挑戰。 儘管通膨預期仍接近2%,但鮑爾認為近零利率時代不太可能回來。他並未明指川普的關稅 ,但曾提及關稅可能導致經濟成長放緩與物價上升,影響仍難評估。 心得/評論: 老鮑一句「高實質利率可能會常態化」是不是等於預告? 長債殖利率不會輕易回落 債券價格難有大反彈 供給衝擊+關稅效應 = 通膨壓力回來了 債蛙又要哭了? -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 218.32.44.219 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1747314453.A.524.html

05/15 21:07, 1月前 , 1F
債挖下去
05/15 21:07, 1F

05/15 21:08, 1月前 , 2F
債蛙表示哭哭
05/15 21:08, 2F

05/15 21:08, 1月前 , 3F
債娃崩潰了
05/15 21:08, 3F

05/15 21:08, 1月前 , 4F
川普要爆炸了
05/15 21:08, 4F

05/15 21:08, 1月前 , 5F
救救債蛙….
05/15 21:08, 5F

05/15 21:08, 1月前 , 6F
哇蛙
05/15 21:08, 6F

05/15 21:08, 1月前 , 7F
老鮑繼續龜
05/15 21:08, 7F

05/15 21:08, 1月前 , 8F
幹 救救債蛙
05/15 21:08, 8F

05/15 21:08, 1月前 , 9F
歷史罪人
05/15 21:08, 9F

05/15 21:08, 1月前 , 10F
該升不升該降不降 這就是我大鮑爾
05/15 21:08, 10F

05/15 21:08, 1月前 , 11F
川普又要罵了
05/15 21:08, 11F

05/15 21:09, 1月前 , 12F
救命
05/15 21:09, 12F

05/15 21:09, 1月前 , 13F
Mr. too late
05/15 21:09, 13F

05/15 21:09, 1月前 , 14F
丸子
05/15 21:09, 14F

05/15 21:09, 1月前 , 15F
反正他有任期 川普會換自己人上來大修正
05/15 21:09, 15F

05/15 21:09, 1月前 , 16F
99債蛙
05/15 21:09, 16F

05/15 21:09, 1月前 , 17F
都鈍化沒差了啦 ,只有債蛙躺在地上
05/15 21:09, 17F

05/15 21:10, 1月前 , 18F
搞到自家央行也不知道川先生要怎麼搞了@@
05/15 21:10, 18F

05/15 21:10, 1月前 , 19F
Too late
05/15 21:10, 19F

05/15 21:10, 1月前 , 20F
老鮑:爽阿 弄死你啊~
05/15 21:10, 20F

05/15 21:10, 1月前 , 21F
債蛙哭太久已經哭不出淚來了
05/15 21:10, 21F

05/15 21:10, 1月前 , 22F
債蛙永無翻身之日
05/15 21:10, 22F

05/15 21:10, 1月前 , 23F
多空蛙今天先不要吵架, 我們一起來笑債蛙
05/15 21:10, 23F

05/15 21:10, 1月前 , 24F
死鮑
05/15 21:10, 24F

05/15 21:11, 1月前 , 25F
翻譯:川普下台 或者我下台才會考慮降息
05/15 21:11, 25F

05/15 21:11, 1月前 , 26F
可憐債蛙.....
05/15 21:11, 26F

05/15 21:11, 1月前 , 27F
05/15 21:11, 27F

05/15 21:11, 1月前 , 28F
明年6月就不用看你慢吞吞的了
05/15 21:11, 28F

05/15 21:11, 1月前 , 29F
川普跟債蛙抱在一起哭
05/15 21:11, 29F

05/15 21:11, 1月前 , 30F
債蛙88
05/15 21:11, 30F

05/15 21:11, 1月前 , 31F
期貨沒反應?
05/15 21:11, 31F

05/15 21:11, 1月前 , 32F
債蛙呼吸
05/15 21:11, 32F

05/15 21:12, 1月前 , 33F
川普:我叫你降(怒
05/15 21:12, 33F

05/15 21:12, 1月前 , 34F
拆拆是什麼看起來很賤的人嗎
05/15 21:12, 34F

05/15 21:12, 1月前 , 35F
美國經濟景氣強勁成長,加上工業回流美國,美國經
05/15 21:12, 35F

05/15 21:12, 1月前 , 36F
濟更是銳不可當,美股上看十萬。
05/15 21:12, 36F

05/15 21:12, 1月前 , 37F
你不降沒關係
05/15 21:12, 37F

05/15 21:12, 1月前 , 38F
下一任自然會降
05/15 21:12, 38F

05/15 21:12, 1月前 , 39F
可憐哪….
05/15 21:12, 39F
還有 340 則推文
05/16 03:49, 1月前 , 380F
債蛙崩潰啦啊啊啊啊啊啊啊啊
05/16 03:49, 380F

05/16 05:06, 1月前 , 381F
川普你在再不搞點事,老鮑可不會降息的喔
05/16 05:06, 381F

05/16 05:24, 1月前 , 382F
至少還能期待老鮑明年下台,結巴龍何時要滾?
05/16 05:24, 382F

05/16 05:45, 1月前 , 383F
升息太慢降息也太慢,他到底做了什麼?
05/16 05:45, 383F

05/16 05:56, 1月前 , 384F
看cpi細項根本在通縮 老保就是老保 搞政治行搞經濟
05/16 05:56, 384F

05/16 05:56, 1月前 , 385F
不行 不過一旦降息 美股就準備溜滑梯
05/16 05:56, 385F

05/16 06:10, 1月前 , 386F
債券etf 不是債!
05/16 06:10, 386F

05/16 06:16, 1月前 , 387F
川普接下來又要搞事了
05/16 06:16, 387F

05/16 06:22, 1月前 , 388F
真這樣全世界經濟特別是東亞房地產要小心了啦,過
05/16 06:22, 388F

05/16 06:22, 1月前 , 389F
去房市估價都是建立在老美十幾年零利率基礎上以後
05/16 06:22, 389F

05/16 06:22, 1月前 , 390F
估值要重算了
05/16 06:22, 390F

05/16 06:24, 1月前 , 391F
債蛙死全家啦嘻嘻
05/16 06:24, 391F

05/16 06:31, 1月前 , 392F
一堆人都不知道FED是投票決定而不是主席決定嗎
05/16 06:31, 392F

05/16 06:41, 1月前 , 393F
擺明了就是要跟川普對幹
05/16 06:41, 393F

05/16 07:04, 1月前 , 394F
救救美債
05/16 07:04, 394F

05/16 07:10, 1月前 , 395F
垃圾鮑威爾
05/16 07:10, 395F

05/16 07:13, 1月前 , 396F
到底是誰推薦買TLT的烏烏烏皮包越來越薄惹哀優不完
05/16 07:13, 396F

05/16 07:47, 1月前 , 397F
債蛙的利息都補不了賠錢,還說要付未來的房貸?
05/16 07:47, 397F

05/16 07:59, 1月前 , 398F
媽的垃圾
05/16 07:59, 398F

05/16 07:59, 1月前 , 399F
你不要再說了
05/16 07:59, 399F

05/16 08:08, 1月前 , 400F
美債本來就不適合賺價差,嘻嘻
05/16 08:08, 400F

05/16 08:14, 1月前 , 401F
你最多就做一年多,不會長期
05/16 08:14, 401F

05/16 08:21, 1月前 , 402F
你說的高不是高
05/16 08:21, 402F

05/16 08:45, 1月前 , 403F
川普:Sucks…..
05/16 08:45, 403F

05/16 08:53, 1月前 , 404F
媽的幹 不就逼川普人為進入recession嗎 幹林良...
05/16 08:53, 404F

05/16 09:15, 1月前 , 405F
套這配都舒服
05/16 09:15, 405F

05/16 09:24, 1月前 , 406F
美債快壓垮川普了
05/16 09:24, 406F

05/16 09:39, 1月前 , 407F
娃娃娃
05/16 09:39, 407F

05/16 10:17, 1月前 , 408F
勿謂言之不預
05/16 10:17, 408F

05/16 10:36, 1月前 , 409F
臭鮑
05/16 10:36, 409F

05/16 10:41, 1月前 , 410F
債蛙:
05/16 10:41, 410F

05/16 11:11, 1月前 , 411F
快點給我降利率!
05/16 11:11, 411F

05/16 11:23, 1月前 , 412F
買美債真的是給自己找麻煩
05/16 11:23, 412F

05/16 11:27, 1月前 , 413F
投顧、網紅鼓吹的長債是必隔代套都不可能解套。
05/16 11:27, 413F

05/16 13:13, 1月前 , 414F
05/16 13:13, 414F

05/16 16:13, 1月前 , 415F
挖塞
05/16 16:13, 415F

05/16 16:45, 1月前 , 416F
債蛙QQ
05/16 16:45, 416F

05/16 19:02, 1月前 , 417F
川普要罵?讓他罵啊,誰理三普
05/16 19:02, 417F

05/16 19:10, 1月前 , 418F
沒差啦 升息跌 降息也跌
05/16 19:10, 418F

05/17 23:55, 1月前 , 419F
too-late powell
05/17 23:55, 419F
文章代碼(AID): #1e9USLKa (Stock)
文章代碼(AID): #1e9USLKa (Stock)