[新聞] 伊朗戰爭考驗著川普對石油市場承受力

看板Stock (股票)作者ntpcgov (喵喵)時間1小時前 (2026/03/26 18:36)推噓6(7推 1噓 7→)

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伊朗戰爭考驗唐納·川普對石油市場「痛苦」的容忍度美國總統似乎會根據原油價格的波動，突然轉向政策立場找出下一個「Taco」時刻何時到來，已成為華爾街最新的癡迷點。投資者正試圖尋找觸發唐納·川普（Donald Trump）對伊朗戰爭政策轉向的「痛苦臨界點」，因為這位美國總統在社交媒體上的發言引發了石油市場的劇烈波動。自川普發動中東戰爭以來，他傾向於在石油市場關閉的週末加強對伊朗政權的威脅，並在油價上漲時暗示和平即將到來。這些訊息是其政府平抑汽油價格通膨努力的一部分，此時距離期中選舉僅剩幾個月，生活成本危機已成為選民關注的焦點。這種模式凸顯了石油市場對衝突進程的核心影響，以及白宮——至少到目前為止——在防止原油價格失控方面的成功。「很明顯，（川普）害怕加油站的高油價……汽油價格超過 4 美元是政治自殺，」Onyx Capital Group 石油分析師 Jorge Montepeque 表示。「但天平的另一端是他的自尊心。他不能被看作是輸家。」布蘭特原油（Brent crude）在 3 月 9 日創下每桶 119 美元以上的高點，且在過去幾週劇烈震盪，期間伊朗對穿越荷莫茲海峽的船隻及波斯灣各地的能源設施發動了襲擊。美國消費者和企業已開始感受到影響：汽油價格跳漲逾三分之一，接近每加侖 4 美元；而工業的重要燃料——柴油，則已突破 5 美元。一位資深能源交易員指出了一個清晰的模式：每當美國油價（目前交易價格比布蘭特原油低約 10 美元）接近每桶 95 至 100 美元時，政府的降溫言論就會加強，市場對政府干預石油市場的猜測也會隨之升溫。他們表示，到目前為止，這種「口頭干預」（jawboning）有助於壓制價格。但他們也警告，如果出現實際的物理性短缺，市場可能會大幅飆升。「Taco」時刻幾位交易員認為，考量到伊朗戰爭造成的破壞規模，油價理應更高，但沒多少人敢與川普透過社交媒體和電視採訪進行的干預對做，因為他們認為這些舉動旨在打壓價格。「這些指控完全是錯誤的。川普總統對美國民眾一直保持完全透明，這些只是暫時的短期波動，他正專注於做正確的事——即消除伊朗恐怖政權對美國及其盟友的威脅，」白宮發言人 Taylor Rogers 表示。投資者對於川普反覆無常的政策制定早已習以為常。自去年此時他在關稅問題上反反覆覆 ——當時的多次轉向催生了「川普總是退縮」（Trump Always Chickens Out，簡稱 TACO ）一詞。但過去一週矛盾的訊息將川普的不可預測性推向了新高度。自上週五以來，美國政府威脅要從戰略石油儲備（SPR）中釋放數億桶原油，向中東部署了陸軍第 82 空降師的精英傘兵，並威脅要「夷平」伊朗的發電廠——同時卻又暗示與身分不明的伊朗官員進行的和平談判進展順利。「現在有太多競爭性的標題，有的預示戰爭升級，有的預示緩和，我們已經進入了虛構作品的範疇，」紐約經紀商 Jones Trading 的 Mike O’Rourke 表示。與此同時，由於油價上漲推高了通膨預期，迫使交易員承認聯準會（Fed）今年可能不會降息，美國借貸成本已升至近 12 個月來的最高水平。基準 10 年期公債殖利率（決定政府借貸成本）本月迄今已上升約 0.4 個百分點，是 2024 年底以來表現最差的一個月。找出下一個「Taco」時刻何時到來，已成為華爾街最新的癡迷點。德意志銀行跨資產策略主管 Maximilian Uleer 本週開發了一個「壓力指數」，作為「美國政府即將發布言論或進行戰略調整的指標」。該指數納入了川普支持率的一個月變化、一年通膨預期、標普 500 指數的表現以及美國國債殖利率。「如果指數上升，美國政府進行戰略調整的可能性就會增加，」Uleer 表示。「如果這四個痛苦點都感到疼痛，調整的動力就會非常高。」該指數目前正處於川普重返總統職位以來的最高點。 Amundi 投資學院院長 Monica Defend 表示，川普在第二任期內對國債殖利率變得「敏感得多」。「一旦（10 年期）公債接近 4.5%，政府就會變得非常緊張，通常那時他們就會採取行動。作為投資者，你需要預見到這一點，」她說。其他投資者則選擇在混亂中觀望，擔心被川普在 Truth Social 上的下一篇發文搞得措手不及。「我們都在做同樣的事——什麼都不做，」一家北美避險基金的投資長表示。「你不能放空石油，因為它隨時可能衝上 150 美元。或者，戰爭也可能在五分鐘內結束。」原文標題： Iran war tests Donald Trump’s tolerance for ‘pain’ in oil market US president appears to make abrupt policy pivots based on swings in crude prices 原文連結： https://www.ft.com/content/bc6037d6-d6cf-4117-9eb0-311956ea9dd1?syn-25a6b1a6=1 發布時間： Published5 hours ago 記者署名： George Steer in New York and Emily Herbert, Malcolm Moore and Jonathan Vincent in London 原文內容： Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://help.ft.com/faq/gifting-and-sharing-an-article/what-is-a-gift-article/. https://www.ft.com/content/bc6037d6-d6cf-4117-9eb0-311956ea9dd1?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Investors are hunting for the “pain point” that prompts Donald Trump to make policy pivots on his war in Iran as the US president’s social media posts ignite severe swings in the oil market. Since Trump launched the war in the Middle East, he has tended to intensify his threats against the Iranian regime over weekends, when oil markets are closed, and hint at impending peace when prices are rising. The messages are part of his administration’s efforts to tamp down petrol price inflation just months ahead of midterm elections when an affordability crisis will be on voters’ agenda. The pattern underscores the centrality of oil markets to the course of the conflict, along with the White House’s success — at least so far — in preventing crude prices from spiralling out of control. “It is clear that [Trump] is fearful of high prices at the pumpGasoline over $4 is a political killer,” said Jorge Montepeque, oil analyst at Onyx Capital Group. “On the other side of the ledger is his ego. He can’ t be seen to have lost.” Brent crude hit a high above $119 a barrel on March 9 and has gyrated violently over the past few weeks as Iran has launched strikes against ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz and energy facilities across the Gulf. US consumers and businesses are beginning to feel the effects: petrol prices have jumped more than a third to almost $4 a gallon, while diesel — a vital fuel for industry — has exceeded $5. One senior energy trader pointed to what they saw as a clear pattern: whenever US oil prices — currently trading around $10 below Brent — approached $95 to $100 a barrel, the administration’s de-escalatory rhetoric intensified and market speculation about potential government intervention in the oil market grew louder. So far, they said, such “jawboning” had helped cap prices. But they also warned that the market could break sharply higher if physical shortages began to emerge. Several traders said they believed oil prices should be higher given the scale of disruption the Iran war has caused, but that there were not many people brave enough to trade against Trump’s interventions via social media posts and television interviews that they view as designed to knock down prices. “These claims are totally false. President Trump has been completely transparent with Americans about these temporary, short-term disruptions and he is focused on doing the right thing — which is eliminating the Iranian terroristegime’s threato America and our allies,” said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers. Investors have grown used to Trump’s capricious policymaking since his toing and froing on tariffs this time last year — when his numerous U-turns spawned the phrase “Trump Always Chickens Out”. But the past week of conflicting messaging has taken Trump’s unpredictability to new heights. Since Friday, the US administration has threatened to release hundreds of millions of barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, deployed elite paratroopers from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East and threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants — all while suggesting that peace negotiations with unidentified Iranian officials are progressing well. “There are now so many competing headlines signalling intensification versus de-escalation of the war in Iran, we have crossed over into fiction,” said Mike O’Rourke at New York-based broker Jones Trading. US borrowing costs have meanwhile risen to their highest level in nearly 12 months as costlier oil drives up inflation expectations and forces traders to concede that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates this year. The benchmark 10-year yield, which sets government borrowing costs, has risen by roughly 0.4 percentage points so far this month, its worst performance since late 2024. Figuring out when the next “Taco” moment will arrive has become Wall Street ’s latest obsession. Deutsche Bank’s head of cross-asset strategy, Maximilian Uleer, this week developed a “pressure index” as a “proxy for upcoming rhetoric or strategic adjustments by the US administration”. The index factors in the one-month change in Trump’s approval ratings, one-year inflation expectations, the performance of Wall Street’s S&P 500 and US Treasury yields. “If the index moves up, a probability of strategic adjustment by the US administration is more likely,” Uleer said. “If all four pain points hurt, the incentive to adjust is very high.” The index is currently near its highest level since Trump regained the presidency. Monica Defend, head of the Amundi Investment Institute, said Trump had become “much more sensitive” to Treasury yields during his second term. “As soon as the [10-year] Treasury nears 4.5 per cent, the administration is getting really nervous, and usually that’s when they act. As investors you need to anticipate that,” she said. Other investors are simply waiting out the chaos, too worried about being caught offside by Trump’s next post on Truth Social. “We’re all doing the same thing — nothing,” said the chief investment officer of a North American hedge fund. “You can’t short oil because it could easily rip to $150. Or the war could end in five minutes.” Additional reporting by Kate Duguid and Aime Williams 心得/評論：近期油價跟大盤呈現高度負相關的關係而川普近期都在周末釋出重大升級訊息導致油價在周一開盤後大漲但又在布倫特觸及110左右進行降溫投資人如果持有大部位的大盤不妨小部位的作多石油以進行風險對沖 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 60.251.107.164 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1774521416.A.7DA.html