[Talk] decision theory
i like to play chess, and recently i'm studying the decision theory,
to see if it can help in playing chess~
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http://www.infra.kth.se/~soh/decisiontheory.pdf
In particular, it focuses on how we use our freedom.
There are options to choose between, and we choose in a non-random way.
Our choices, in these situations, are goal-directed activities. Hence,
decision theory is concerned with goal-directed behavior in the presence
of options.
A normative decision theory is a theory about how decisions should be made,
and a descriptive theory is a theory about how decisions are actually made.
A normative decision theory is a theory about how decisions should be made
in order to be "rational".
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decision process:
John Dewey--
problem-solving consists of five consecutive stages:
a felt difficulty
the definition of the character of that difficulty
suggestion of possible solutions
evaluation of the suggestion
further observation and experiment leading to acceptance or rejection of
the suggestion
Herbert Simon modified Dewey's list of five stages to make it suitable
for the context of decisions in organizations. According to Simon, decision-
making consists of three principal phases: "finding occasions for making
a decision; finding possible courses of action; and choosing among courses
of action." The first of these phases he called Intelligence, the second
Design and the third Choice.
non-sequential models
(p13)
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