Re: [Talk] decision theory
The following list of four factors is meant to be a basic checklist
of aspects to be taken into account in deliberations on the seriousness
of unknown possibilities.
1.Asymmetry of uncertainty: Possibly, a raise in pensions leads in
some unknown way to a nuclear war. Possibly, not raising the pensions
leads in some unknown way to a nuclear war. We have no reason why
one or the other of these two causal chains should be more probable,
or otherwise more worth our attention than the other. On the other hand,
the introduction of a new species of earth worm is connected with
much more consequence-uncertainty than the option not to introduce
the new species. Such asymmetry is a necessary but insufficient condition
for the issue of unknown possibilities to be non-negligible.
2.Novelty
3.Spatial and temporal limitations
4.Interference with complex systems in balance
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