Re: [CR. ] TN-13-Q4
一個現象是加稅,另一現象是香菸銷售下降。
但是這兩現象之間不必然有因果關係。
現在題目認定兩者之間是因果關係,那麼就必須補充必要條件。
D的意思是加稅前一包菸賣一塊錢,
但是假若次年稅前價菸商主動先降到92cents,
那麼加了8cents的稅不是又回到一塊錢?
若是如此,那麼加稅就不是銷售下降的原因。
所以D的意思是次年的稅前價(pre-tax price)不能少於92 cents,
那麼一加稅,稅後價就超過一塊錢,
比前一年貴了,所以銷售下降,
兩者的因果關係就獲得確立。
(以上內容由美加 江璞老師提供)
※ 引述《dounts (忘記過去)》之銘言:
: ※ 引述《cindy2015 ()》之銘言:
: : Q. In the years following an eight-cent increase in the federal tax on a pack
: : of cigarettes, sales of cigarettes fell ten percent. In contrast, in the
: : year prior to the tax increase, sales had fallen one percent.
: : The volume of cigarette sales is therefore strongly related to the
: : after-tax price of a pack of cigarettes.
: tax increase
: P1 + T1 -----> P2 + T2 = P2 + T1 + 8 cent
: ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
: after-tax price
: 結果得到 sales 下滑 1%
: 題目歸因於 "after-tax price"
: 意思就是 after-tax price ↑ --> sales ↓
: 問題是 題目只說 tax incrase by 8 cents
: assumption 橋段產生:
: tax incrase by 8 cents --> after-tax price ↑
: P1 + T1 < P2 + T1 + 8 cent
: P2 不能少於 P1 達到 8 cent 造成 after tax price 下滑
: after tax price 下滑 就不能說 sales 下滑是此原因
: : The argument above requires which of the following assumptions?
: : A. During the year following the tax increase, the pretax price of a pack of
: : cigarettes did not increase by as much as it had during the year prior to
: : the tax increase.
: : B. The one percent fall in cigarette sales in the year prior to tax increases
: : was due to a smaller tax increase.
: : C. The pretax price of a pack of cigarettes gradually decreased throughout the
: : year before and the year after the tax increase.
: : D. For the year following the tax increase, the pretax price of a pack of
: : cigarettes was not eight or more cents lower than it had been the previous
: : year.
: : E. As the after-tax price of a pack of cigarettes rises, the pretax price also
: : rises.
: : 答案是D
: : 卻是看不明白怎麼推出的假設@@
: : 是根據什麼咧?
: : 還請板友幫忙解答
: : 謝謝
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