Re: [新聞] 外資怕有戰爭賣超台股？謝金河曝兩岸不會
看板Stock (股票)作者wl00669773 (Jerry shou)時間4年前 (2021/11/21 07:45)推噓14(16推 2噓 7→)留言25則, 18人參與討論串2/2 (看更多)
11/21 03:46
: → kenndy : 希特勒打進法國，巴黎股市還是續創新高 11/21 03:46
稍微查了一下
根據DAVID LE BRIS的Wars, Inflation and Stock Market Returns in France,1870-1945
文中說明到二戰時期的法國市場並非自由市場導致股價上漲
1.二戰時期法國國內的資金只能購買國有資產和公債
World War I and World War II differ in the level of capital freedom.
The financial repression applied can explain the surprising rise of stock prices during the
second world conflict.
During World War II, the monetary creation is carried out in a context where frontiers are closed to the exportation of money
Money can only buy national assets and is oriented to buy public debt.
2.法國政府大量借貸印鈔導致的通膨則透過專制手段強迫控制
The new money created without any new wealth generation within the French
economy should have arguably caused price adjustment (i.e. inflation), but
most of the prices were at that time controlled in an authoritarian manner.
All prices were legally frozen from 1939, with only a few exemptions.
3.承上，大眾將資金從不會上漲的實體物大量轉至會上漲的股市之中
At that time, people fled the Franc for real assets with prices free to
increase in nominal value.
It is a flight to quality, and a subsequent boom for stocks.
Stocks representing claims on real value (for instance real estate or retail stores with many real estate properties,
like Au Printemps) provided the best performances
https://imgur.com/4AlmRGF
所以拿法國股市戰爭時期會上漲來說戰爭時股市的反應不太能類比喔
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※ 編輯: wl00669773 (220.142.57.87 臺灣), 11/21/2021 08:09:11
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