[閒聊] 台灣房市連環爆機率如何?
2008房利美 房地美,將住房抵押貸款包裝成證券和其衍生性金融商品讓大家發大財,後
來2007股市開崩,抵押貸款證券沒人承接,造成“流動性問題“引爆完美崩盤
這回看看台灣
1.政府短時間宣布,名下有自住貸款者,第二間只能貸六成,宣布後馬上實施,前面上萬
間預售屋買家,要在短時間多湊出兩成頭期款
2.承上,因為湊不出兩成頭期款,必須賣房,但是剛好又遇到限貸,沒買方承接,很難賣
到理想價錢
3.哪天一個股市崩盤,景氣蕭條,房市賣壓變大,沒買方承接,造成流動性不足,市場恐
慌殺價,引爆股房連環爆
以上發生的機率為何 ??
歷史上倒掛結束和薩姆法則觸發,近幾次100%股市崩盤
只要股市崩盤,房市賣壓承重+沒人承接,那後面行情可想而知
never say never
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