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[新聞] 為何美國牛肉價格持續創下新高

看板Stock (股票)作者 (にんきもの)時間5小時前 (2025/07/13 00:37), 5小時前編輯推噓14(18推 4噓 26→)
留言48則, 30人參與, 29分鐘前最新討論串1/1
原文標題： Why U.S. Beef Prices Keep Scaling New Heights 原文連結： https://www.investopedia.com/why-beef-prices-keep-scaling-new-heights-11769774 發布時間： July 12, 2025 08:00 AM EDT 記者署名： Lyle Niedens 原文內容： Why U.S. Beef Prices Keep Scaling New Heights KEY TAKEAWAYS The lowest U.S. cattle inventories in 73 years have pushed U.S. beef prices to all-time highs in recent months. Reduced slaughter is forecast to limit beef production in the months ahead and into 2026. Tariffs and a ban on cattle shipments from Mexico could crimp otherwise strong beef imports that have helped pick up the slack. U.S. beef cattle supplies have reached their lowest point since the Truman Administration, propelling beef prices to all-time highs that likely will persist in the months ahead. Covid-19 pandemic disruptions, drought in the western U.S. and meatpacking industry consolidation all have played a role in declining cattle inventories in recent years. Now, with supplies down, tariffs and Mother Nature may limit beef and cattle imports, maintaining upward pressure on prices. This week, the U.S. reinstituted a ban on cattle imports from Mexico because of concerns about screwworm, a flesh-eating larvae that can spread throughout cattle herds.1 Prices Surge Ground beef prices reached an average of $5.98 per pound in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.2 That's a 16% increase from the same month a year ago and 46% higher than four years ago. A broader measure of retail beef prices, including steaks and roasts, from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows a 17% increase since the beginning of 2023.3 Beef prices that have repeatedly scaled new all-time highs this year directly reflect the declining availability of cattle for slaughter. As of Jan. 1, U.S. cattle inventories were at the lowest level since 1952.4 Inventories have declined steadily since the pandemic.5 As consumer demand has remained steady, the lower supply has pushed up prices at cattle auctions and prices for cattle fattened at feed yards. Feeder cattle and live cattle prices have surged 21% and 14% so far this year, and average prices for slaughter steers have reached record highs.67 Limited Production As cattle prices have risen, meatpackers in May dropped the number of animals they slaughtered for the first time during that month since at least 1970.6 Typically, slaughter increases in spring months as meatpackers prepare for summer grilling season demand. As a result, the USDA in June lowered its 2025 U.S. beef production projection slightly, and production in 2026 now is forecast to fall 4% from this year, likely keeping a high floor on prices. Beef imports have helped pick up some of the supply slack this year, with U.S. beef imports up 28% through April. However, import prices have surged, exacerbated by tariffs the Trump Administration has levied on key foreign markets.6 That could limit import demand moving forward. 機翻： 為何美國牛肉價格持續創下新高 主要觀點 - 美國牛隻存欄量創73年來最低，推高近期美國牛肉價格至歷史新高。 - 預計未來數月至2026年，屠宰量減少將限制牛肉產量。 - 對墨西哥牛隻進口的關稅和禁令可能限制原本強勁的牛肉進口，這些進口有助於彌補供 應缺口。 - 美國肉牛供應量已降至杜魯門（Truman）政府時期以來的最低點，牛肉價格創下歷史新 高，且這種高價可能在未來數月持續。 新冠疫情（Covid-19）造成的干擾、美國西部乾旱以及肉品加工業的整合，近年來皆對牛 隻存欄量下降產生影響。 現在，隨著供應減少，關稅和自然因素可能限制牛肉及牛隻進口，持續推高價格壓力。本 週，美國因擔心螺旋蟲（screwworm，一種會侵蝕牛隻的食肉幼蟲）在牛群中傳播，重新 對墨西哥牛隻進口實施禁令。 價格飆升 根據勞工統計局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）數據，5月絞牛肉價格平均達到每磅5. 98美元。與去年同期相比上漲16%，與四年前相比上漲46%。美國農業部（U.S. Department of Agriculture）對零售牛肉價格（包括牛排和烤肉）的更廣泛衡量顯示， 自2023年初以來價格上漲17%。 今年牛肉價格屢次創下歷史新高，直接反映出可供屠宰的牛隻數量下降。截至1月1日，美 國牛隻存欄量降至1952年以來的最低水平。疫情爆發以來，存欄量持續穩定下降。 由於消費者需求保持穩定，供應減少推高了牛隻拍賣價格以及飼養場育肥牛的價格。今年 至今，育肥牛和活牛價格分別上漲21%和14%，屠宰用公牛的平均價格也創下歷史新高。 產量受限 隨著牛隻價格上漲，肉品加工商在5月首次減少屠宰量，這是至少自1970年以來該月首次 出現屠宰量下降。通常，春季屠宰量會增加，以因應夏季燒烤季的需求。 因此，美國農業部在6月略微下調了2025年美國牛肉產量預測，預計2026年產量將較今年 下降4%，這可能使價格保持高位。 今年牛肉進口在一定程度上彌補了供應缺口，截至4月，美國牛肉進口量增加28%。然而， 進口價格也隨之上漲，川普政府對主要外國市場徵收的關稅加劇了這一情況。這可能限制 未來的進口需求。 心得/評論： 美國自己的牛肉都不太夠用了，同時庫存來到來到73年最低。 台灣假如真的降美國牛關稅暫時也不會對台灣造成太大衝擊吧。 另外美股麥當勞、YUM股價不知道會不會受到牛肉價格影響？ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 220.211.181.230 (日本) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1752338277.A.A6E.html ※ 編輯: chordate (220.211.181.230 日本), 07/13/2025 00:38:44
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07/13 00:38, 5小時前 , 1F
阿川：沒有通膨問題
07/13 00:38, 1F
推
07/13 00:39, 5小時前 , 2F
沒牛肉吃，可以吃豬肉
07/13 00:39, 2F
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07/13 00:40, 5小時前 , 3F
連巴西牛都準備gg
07/13 00:40, 3F
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07/13 00:40, 5小時前 , 4F
進澳牛 賣美牛
07/13 00:40, 4F
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07/13 00:42, 5小時前 , 5F
因為要賣更多出國了，當地人吃不到QQ
07/13 00:42, 5F
推
07/13 00:44, 5小時前 , 6F
進紐澳的牛呀
07/13 00:44, 6F
推
07/13 00:45, 5小時前 , 7F
台灣好像有進巴拉圭的吧
07/13 00:45, 7F
推
07/13 00:46, 5小時前 , 8F
羊肉比較好吃
07/13 00:46, 8F
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07/13 00:49, 5小時前 , 9F
Homelander: 吃不到牛肉不會喝牛奶嗎（舔）
07/13 00:49, 9F
噓
07/13 00:51, 5小時前 , 10F
美國牛比澳洲牛好吃太多了 最好越便宜越好
07/13 00:51, 10F
推
07/13 00:51, 5小時前 , 11F
看超市的牛肉還沒比之前最貴的時候誇張 是準備要漲
07/13 00:51, 11F
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07/13 00:51, 5小時前 , 12F
了逆？
07/13 00:51, 12F
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07/13 00:51, 5小時前 , 13F
肯定是把賣不完的肉賣給你叫你吞
07/13 00:51, 13F
噓
07/13 00:53, 5小時前 , 14F
內臟 重點是內臟
07/13 00:53, 14F
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07/13 01:04, 5小時前 , 15F
巴西牛肉
07/13 01:04, 15F
推
07/13 01:06, 5小時前 , 16F
誰不定貴一點美國佬也開始啃內臟了
07/13 01:06, 16F
噓
07/13 01:38, 4小時前 , 17F
呵呵吃內臟跟choice一下的
07/13 01:38, 17F
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07/13 01:50, 4小時前 , 18F
牛排改吃澳洲牛肉 燒肉吃和牛
07/13 01:50, 18F
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07/13 01:51, 4小時前 , 19F
其他牛肉麵早就都用巴拉圭牛肉
07/13 01:51, 19F
推
07/13 01:55, 4小時前 , 20F
美牛早就進來了 有趣的是大家都說自己是用台灣牛
07/13 01:55, 20F
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07/13 01:55, 4小時前 , 21F
到底進來的美牛誰吃了呢
07/13 01:55, 21F
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07/13 01:57, 4小時前 , 22F
沒記錯好像進了幾千噸 反正台灣人鉛水喝很多 智力
07/13 01:57, 22F
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07/13 01:57, 4小時前 , 23F
較低 也不太會注意這種東西
07/13 01:57, 23F
噓
07/13 02:05, 4小時前 , 24F
樓上工撒小== 牛排店都馬標自己是美牛
07/13 02:05, 24F
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07/13 02:07, 4小時前 , 25F
我還真沒看過牛排店標自己是台灣牛的
07/13 02:07, 25F
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07/13 02:07, 4小時前 , 26F
美牛早就標示一堆...沒看過，是不是吃素？還是非台
07/13 02:07, 26F
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07/13 02:07, 4小時前 , 27F
灣人？
07/13 02:07, 27F
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07/13 02:10, 4小時前 , 28F
牛排店怎麼可能用台灣牛? 還是你說的是雜牌的?
07/13 02:10, 28F
推
07/13 02:18, 3小時前 , 29F
記錯了 是美豬才對 美牛還真有人賣/吃
07/13 02:18, 29F
推
07/13 02:20, 3小時前 , 30F
賣不完的肉（X
07/13 02:20, 30F
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07/13 02:20, 3小時前 , 31F
當地樂色直接拿來賣（O
07/13 02:20, 31F
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07/13 02:20, 3小時前 , 32F
反正過陣子 內臟類大概也會大舉進來 現在放放新聞
07/13 02:20, 32F
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07/13 02:20, 3小時前 , 33F
通知而已 之後就是進口千萬噸 但0售出 而且禁止標
07/13 02:20, 33F
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07/13 02:20, 3小時前 , 34F
示 好日子一起過
07/13 02:20, 34F
推
07/13 02:32, 3小時前 , 35F
台灣牛這麼柴..只能做牛肉湯吧
07/13 02:32, 35F
推
07/13 02:39, 3小時前 , 36F
高級牛排館都標榜美國prime吧 有在賣台牛的嗎?
07/13 02:39, 36F
推
07/13 02:42, 3小時前 , 37F
美國集約式養殖也到極限了，不是乾旱就是洪水
07/13 02:42, 37F
推
07/13 02:46, 3小時前 , 38F
豬就好養多了
07/13 02:46, 38F
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07/13 02:51, 3小時前 , 39F
幾年前拼老命吃美牛的金童 都不忌口了
07/13 02:51, 39F
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07/13 02:53, 3小時前 , 40F
嫌日本牛太油 日本豬排臭 會吃不出美牛台豬嗎？
07/13 02:53, 40F
推
07/13 03:26, 2小時前 , 41F
誰智力低這裡就看的出來了
07/13 03:26, 41F
推
07/13 03:43, 2小時前 , 42F
巴拉圭的很便宜
07/13 03:43, 42F
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07/13 03:44, 2小時前 , 43F
巴拉圭的很適合煮牛肉麵 少比較少
07/13 03:44, 43F
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07/13 03:44, 2小時前 , 44F
油
07/13 03:44, 44F
推
07/13 04:41, 1小時前 , 45F
進口巴西和阿根廷牛肉啊超香
07/13 04:41, 45F
推
07/13 05:30, 46分鐘前 , 46F
上個月去美國吃，我看牛肉價格都沒什麼變化和去年
07/13 05:30, 46F
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07/13 05:30, 46分鐘前 , 47F
一樣。後來才發現是吃到澳洲牛。
07/13 05:30, 47F
推
07/13 05:47, 29分鐘前 , 48F
有人大概沒在吃牛排也很少 吃西式餐廳 笑死 好可憐
07/13 05:47, 48F
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