[新聞] 聯準會將有十足耐心 將在六月開升息大門已刪文
1.原文連結(必須檢附)：http://ppt.cc/inMH
2.原文內容：
The Federal Reserve opened the door to an interest-rate increase as soon as
June, while also indicating it will go slow once it gets started.
縱使在(葉倫)暗示一旦升息之後步調將會放緩，美國聯準會仍最快在六月開啟升息之門。
The new signals were contained in a policy statement that ended an era by
dropping an assurance that the Fed will be “patient” in raising rates, and
in a fresh set of estimates that lowered the median for the federal funds
rate the end of 2015 to 0.625 percent compared with 1.125 percent in December.
這些新的訊號被包含在這次的政策聲明，聯準會保證將會結束(低利)時代，並且將會"有
耐心"地看待升息這回事，在新的一系列估計中，在2015年年底聯邦基金利率中位數將比
先前估計的1.125%還要降低至0.625%。(由這段話眾多投資人解讀為:鴿派鴿派再鴿派)
“Just because we removed the word patient from the statement doesn’t mean
we are going to be impatient,” Chair Janet Yellen said in a press conference
Wednesday in Washington.
葉倫在一場華盛頓的新聞發布會中說:"只是因為我們讓把耐性這個詞從聲明稿中拿掉遠離，
但並不代表(聯準會的)我們會變得沒有耐性。"
The Federal Open Market Committee said it will be appropriate to tighten “
when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably
confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the
medium term.”
聯邦公開市場委員會聲稱，在以下幾點達陣後再緊縮貨幣政策將會較為恰當:"
(1.見到，使用has seen代表很有機會)當聯準會見到勞動市場更進一步的改善、
(2.我們應該)合理地對中長期通膨率回歸2個百分點保有信心。"
“An increase in the target range for the federal funds rate remains un-
likely at the April” meeting, it said in its statement.
聲明稿中陳述:"在四月提高聯準會目標利率是不大可能的事。"
Yellen is preparing for an exit from the most aggressive easing in the
Fed’s 100-year history as the job market overcomes the damage wrought by the
deepest recession since the 1930s. At the same time, inflation and wage
growth that remain too low are giving her reasons for caution.
在葉倫的準備下，伴隨著勞動市場從1930年代以來最低迷的災難中復甦，(我們)將脫離
聯準會在這百年歷史上最具計畫性的大規模寬鬆。同時，通膨與薪資(*)的成長過低仍是
她(葉倫/葉大大)擔心的原因。
Stocks rose, erasing earlier losses, after the FOMC announcement. The
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 0.9 percent at 2,091.92B as of 2:31 p.m.
in New York. Ten-year Treasury notes yielded 1.96 percent, down nine basis
points.
在FOMC陳述後，股市收復不久前的回落，標普500指數上漲了0.9個百分點，在紐約下午
2點31分來到2091.92點，十年期公債利率(10年期國庫券收益)目前為1.96，下降了9個
基點。
Guidance Change
While Fed officials lowered their estimate for the federal funds rate at
the end of 2015, they said in their statement that “this change in the
forward guidance does not indicate that the Committee has decided on the
timing of the initial increase in the target range.”
當聯準會降低了在2015年底的聯邦基金利率預估，他們在聲明稿中說:"這項對於指引
(/預估)的改變並不表示聯準會決定了第一次升息的時間點與目標區間。"
Dropping the pledge to be “patient” marks a shift away from the explicit
guidance on the future path of policy that the Fed has used since late 2008
to keep longer-term borrowing costs low. The Fed will now set policy at each
meeting based on the latest economic data, making its actions less
predictable.
放棄了"耐心"的誓言，代表聯準會將會帶領(世界)從2008年就開闢清晰可見的政策--長期
低利水準，這條軌道上駛離，聯準會將會在每次的會議針對最新的經濟資料做擬定政策，
以防不可預期的可能性發生。
The Fed repeated that it sees “strong job gains” and that labor-market
conditions have “improved further.”
聯準會重申他們預期"強勁的職缺增加"，並且勞動市場條件將會"比預期的更為改善"。
Still, the committee lowered its assessment of the economy, saying growth
has “moderated somewhat.” In January, it said the economy was “expanding at
a solid pace.” Export growth has weakened and the housing recovery remains
slow, according to this month’s statement.
但是聯準會下調了經濟的評估，蓋因成長仍"一丁點兒的，穩健的"增速。在一月之時，
聯準會曾說經濟"在一個堅實的步調中擴張"。但是根據本次聲明卻稱出口緩速、房屋
復甦仍過於緩慢。
Two Meetings
Yellen has said the promise to be “patient” means the FOMC would probably
wait at least two meetings before raising rates. The next FOMC meetings are
scheduled for April and June.
葉倫曾保證聯準會將有耐心看待(升息)此事，言外之意為FOMC在至少兩次會議之後才
可能探討升息一事(且並不代表在第一次探討之時就隨意升息)。
最近兩次的FOMC會議將在四月及六月
The Fed is preparing to tighten even as stagnant growth elsewhere prompts
central banks in Europe, China and Japan to ease policy. That has put upward
pressure on the dollar, which has jumped more than 4 percent since Fed policy
makers last met on Jan. 28, posing a potential headwind to growth as American
exports become more expensive.
聯準會在準備緊縮政策之時，縱使經濟成長仍在停滯的腳步，並且提示他處，諸如歐洲、
中國及日本仍在實施寬鬆的政策，種種原因推升美元升值，自從(上次/)一月會議以來
美元一口氣跳升了4個百分點，這將使得美國出口品變得更加昂貴。
Fed officials confront conflicting signals from their dual mandates for
full employment and price stability as they weigh when to tighten policy for
the first time since June 2006.
聯準會成員面對既要兼顧穩定的就業率成長，並且穩定物價的矛盾訊號，他們必須對於
這兩項準則加以權衡輕重，尤其是面對2006年以來第一次升值(這麼重大的一回事)。(**)
Job Gains
Surging job gains pushed unemployment down to 5.5 percent in February, the
lowest level in almost seven years, suggesting the economy is strong enough
to withstand higher borrowing costs.
職缺增加的湧浪打壓了二月失業率使降至5.5個百分點，這是7年以來最低的水準，提示
(聯準會)整體經濟足以承受得住(/hold住!!)更高的借貸成本。
Payroll gains have averaged more than 200,000 workers for 12 straight
months, the longest streak of such increases since March 1995.
薪資(*)增長是根據連續12個月、20萬個勞工做平均，而此值的連續增長時期已經突破
1995年3月以來最長的薪資增長期。
“No matter how you cut the cake, you still have an economy running above
trend,” said Bricklin Dwyer, an economist at BNP Paribas SA in New York.
Absent a threat of deflation, “the economy can handle higher rates.”
Bricklin Dwyer說:"不論你怎麼切蛋糕，你總會切到一塊經濟增速比長期趨勢還要快的
一段。"排除通縮的恐懼，"經濟體已經能夠承受更高的利率。"
Among companies boosting payrolls is Omaha, Nebraska-based Union Pacific
Corp. The largest publicly traded railroad in North America plans to hire
about 5,700 employees this year amid an improving economy, Chief Financial
Officer Rob Knight said this month in an investor conference.
在奧荷馬州內所有增加薪資的公司中，內布拉斯加的聯合太平洋鐵路，北美最大的公開
上市鐵路計畫在今年度雇用五千七百名員工(improving economy不知道怎麼翻恰當= =
"伴隨著增速的經濟"?)，首席經濟顧問(又譯為:首席財務官)Rob Knight在投資人會議
(又:在台灣為法說會)如是說。
“That’s a big number,” Knight said. “A lot of those are high-paying
union jobs, so these are very good jobs in our industry.”
Knight說:"這是一個大數字，而其中有很大部分是高薪工作，在我們產業中是很棒的。"
The economy grew at a 2.2 percent annualized rate in the three months
ended December after a 5 percent jump in the third quarter that was the
biggest in 11 years.
這個經濟指標未講明，故不翻譯。
Housing, Production
Even so, recent data on housing, industrial production and consumer
spending have been weaker than forecast, prompting some economists to mark down
their estimates for growth this quarter.
更甚，近期數據顯示房屋、產業製造及消費者消費比先前更加疲弱，使得經濟學家可能需
下調對於本季度的經濟成長。
Inflation and wage growth also haven’t been as strong as many Fed
officials would like, suggesting that there’s more slack left in the economy
than low unemployment alone suggest.
通膨及薪資成長並不如聯準會成員想像中的強勁，經濟體的無力在低失業率以外的數據
也還有一段進步的空間。(意味只有低失業率可以搬上檯面)
Prices as measured by the Fed’s preferred gauge rose just 0.2 percent in
January from a year earlier, and inflation has languished below the central
bank’s 2 percent goal for 33 straight months.
經過聯準會的杜良，一月物價只有較去年上漲0.2%，比央行的2%目標顯得十分憔悴。
(for 33 straight months為連續33個月)
Yellen last month said it would be appropriate to raise rates if the labor
market continues to improve and officials are “reasonably confident” that
inflation will move back up toward their goal.
葉論上月聲稱在勞動市場持續復甦就是時候升息，提醒委員們該對通膨"理性自信"。
(葉大大要大家對於通膨步上軌道要保持信心)
Low inflation expectations are depressing 10-year Treasury yields, which
hit a 20-month low of 1.64 percent in January. The yield was at 2.05 percent
late yesterday.
低迷的通膨率使得十年期國庫券收益縮水，來到了20個月新低:1.64個百分點。在昨天
後期仍在2.05個百分點。
One reason for declining inflation: the plunge in oil prices. That gives
Fed officials reason to believe consumer prices will recover as the impact of
cheaper oil dissipates.
使得通膨低迷的一個原因:油價跳水，這使得聯準會成員有藉口聲稱，消費者物價指數
將會得力於更便宜的油價中復甦。
Bond investors aren’t buying that argument. Traders are betting prices
will rise at a 1.37 percent annual rate over the next five years, down from a
1.67 percent estimate on March 3, according to break-even rates on Treasury
Inflation Protected Securities.
跟股板不太相關，翻譯也累了QQ
Wages present more of a puzzle. Average hourly earnings rose 2 percent in
February from a year earlier, matching the average since the end of the
recession in June 2009.
薪資是個謎，平均時薪在二月較去年上升了2個百分點，觸及了2009年6月衰退期間
的薪資水平。
Eighty nine-percent of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month
forecast that the Fed would drop “patient” from its statement. Sixty-nine
percent predicted the phrase would be replaced by some other form of guidance.
49個經濟學家中的89%接受彭博社的調查，預估本月份的聯準會將會從政策陳述中的
"有耐心"失去耐心，而69%的經濟學家則預測，下幾次的指引將會變更這個詞彙。
(本段翻譯極有可能錯誤)
In December, the FOMC dropped a clause from its statement that it would
hold rates low for a “considerable time” and instead said it would be
“patient” in weighing an increase.
這去年十二月，FOMC表明他們"hold"住利率將長達一個"可觀的時期"，但在這次會議卻
改為以"patient"(/有耐心的)一詞，這意味著可能性升高。
3.心得/評論(必需填寫)：
升息之路遙遙無期
鴿派蛋黃派蘋果派
你想要哪一派?
註:
薪資*http://www.businessweekly.com.tw/KBlogArticle.aspx?ID=1658&pnumber=2
2006年升息**http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20141010000194-260208
FOMC簡介***
FOMC成員有12名，其中聯準會(FED)佔有7名成員，通常透過調整聯邦基金利率以達到公開
市場操作的目的；一年有8次會議，每次的公開聲明稿是投資人焦點，其特別關注經濟成
長率以及通貨膨脹率。
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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 140.113.123.207
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1427021157.A.C14.html
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※ 編輯: sorryandbye (140.113.123.207), 03/22/2015 19:04:42
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感謝R大補充，我也是這麼認為但不敢斷定，現在有補充的話我就不打囉XD
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有錯請多多抓拜託XD
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只是因為彭博社把他們放在一起所以我把他丟到備註
但稍稍看了一下當時的升息狀況是:
3年內的升息循環中共升了17次利率
所以千萬別輕忽歷史XD
把歷史作為借鏡是一個好的選項@@~
推 reyes2222 : 不相信....到時又說2016年就會升息lol 03/22 20:23
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