[新聞] 台美利率不同調!彭博:房市熱 台灣明年Q4才會降息
原文標題:
台美利率不同調!彭博:房市熱 台灣明年Q4才會降息
原文連結:https://reurl.cc/pvK2We
發布時間:2024-09-18 16:03
記者署名:記者陳瑩欣/台北報導
原文內容:
央行即將於明(19)日召開理監事會定調貨幣政策,不過《彭博社》指出,面對房市過熱與通膨降溫緩慢的難題,預料台灣央行將維持指標利率於高點不變至少再逾一年時間,與聯準會(Fed)降息周期脫勾,且可能進一步推出收緊房貸等穩定房市政策。
根據彭博調查29位經濟學家,幾乎全數預期台灣央行本周四將維持重貼現率在2%的2008年以來高位,而其中一位認為央行可能升息12.5基點。此外,預估中值顯示要待2025年第四季才會啟動降息。
報導同時指出,14位回覆彭博調查的經濟學家中,10位預估本周將宣布存款準備率不變,但有4位不排除還有調升的空間,以進一步收緊資金,限制資源過度集中在不動產,
根據《彭博社》記者萬千華、Cynthia Li聯名報導,央行總裁楊金龍今年面臨的挑戰一波未平一波又起,結構性通膨不易根除之際,政府的新青安優惠房貸政策又造成房市熱炒,不只促使央行於3月重啟升息,並在6月調升準存率且收緊信用管制。不料房貸比重仍持續升高,讓歷來傾向不以利率政策來應對房市的央行,史無前例祭出要求銀行自主管理房貸的手段。
紐約梅隆銀行亞太市場策略師Wee Khoon Chong表示,預期台灣央行將保持中性偏鷹的立場,且此次會議可能進一步收緊宏觀審慎措施以抑制房價加速上漲,此前已經實施了六波,但至今仍無法對抗科技股漲勢帶來的財富效應、就業成長對房市的外溢效果。
心得/評論:
台灣央行表示:
他國降息.關我屁事
馬照跑、舞照跳;接著奏樂.接著舞
https://i.imgur.com/ZsuruQI.png
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