[新聞] 央行Q3理監事會 房市管制受矚目
連結:
https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20240915700027-439901
內文:
央行Q3理監事會 房市管制受矚目
2024.09.15 03:00 工商時報 巫其倫
中央銀行19日將舉行第三季理監事會議。市場預期,9月會議聚焦在房市管制,對近期國
銀不動產集中度逼近歷史高點,央行第七波信用管制恐已箭在弦上,甚至可能搭配再調升
存準備率1碼,等同對房市現況打出組合拳。
至於政策利率部分,市場普遍解讀,因各國央行陸續啟動降息,且央行總裁楊金龍先前暗
示利率已到高點,若無意外,第三季央行將維持政策利率「連二凍」,重貼現率、擔保放
款融通利率及短期融通利率,仍維持在各為2%、2.375%及4.25%。
本周理監事會受到高度關注,市場觀察8月消費者物價指數(CPI)年增仍達2.36%,雖較
7月下滑,但仍是連續四個月突破2%的通膨警戒線。但由於全球央行開始降息,除非有太
大意外,否則9月央行利率應維持不動仍為多數的看法。
相較之下,房市過熱議題才是這次會議重中之重。近期央行公布的數據顯示,不動產放款
集中度(購屋+建融/總放款)仍偏高,至7月底仍有37.4%,且至7月底房貸餘額10.6兆
再創歷史新高,且連三月增逾千億。為了避免房市繼續過熱,央行先前已兩度找國銀總經
理「喝咖啡」,且由楊金龍親自坐鎮主持,並要求銀行自提不動產貸款總量方案。
市場解讀,以當前房市熱度,央行9月很可能進一步推出第七波房市管制,最可能將管制
範圍擴及全國。不過,由於第二季就已推出第六波房市管制,就怕連二季打炒房下手太重
,是否續打炒房,央行陷入兩難抉擇。
若央行打炒房下決心,立場更為鷹派,9月甚至可能連續二季調升存準率,以緊縮資金量
,直接影響到銀行的可貸資金,進而達到緊縮效果。
市場人士分析,雖房市過熱是不爭事實,央行有充足理由再推第七波信用管制,但就怕一
次出手過重,即使是針對炒房客而來,仍可能導致銀行對不動產貸款再「抽腿」,若影響
到首購族,恐讓近期房市造成的民怨再度引爆,央行第三季決策陷入打不打房的兩難局面
。
心得:
第二戶房市管制
到底會不會擴散到非六都影響很大
竹南、頭份有投資客極限槓桿預售買滿手
要是擴大範圍到竹南頭份
應該是有人會撐不住
不過我相信央行應該不會再打炒房了
沒人希望房價下跌
--
如果還有來世,我想當一個獸人
--
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